442
FXUS63 KBIS 260706
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
106 AM CST WED FEB 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH DAILY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH,
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
- WINDY ON FRIDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES (20 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT SNOW
IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST WED FEB 26 2025
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. AREA OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL
EXIT TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GFS/NAM
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THE
BEST. CAMS STILL SHOWING FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. WITH SOME
INDICATION OF THIS DEVELOPING ALREADY NORTHWEST, WENT AHEAD AND
EXPANDED THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG AND WENT WITH AREAS
OF FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER PLATEAU.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
THE LAST OF THE REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH DICKEY COUNTY, THOUGH SOME BACK-BUILDING HAS BEEN
OBSERVED. BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS, THE WIND FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED. THE SKY COVER FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN IT BEYOND A FEW HOURS IS LOW AS GUIDANCE HAS
FAILED TO PICK UP ON THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
MOST OF THE REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW CONFINED TO LAMOURE AND
DICKEY COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, BUT THE CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL GREATLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES FROM
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION, BUT BUFKIT
VERTICAL MOTION ANALYSES SHOW GENERAL LIFT, AND WINDS ABOVE THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER MAY BE TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT FOG. THEREFORE, THINK
THAT ANY FOG WILL BE VERY SPATIALLY LIMITED TO LOW-LYING, SHELTERED
AREAS. A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 504 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
QUICK UPDATE FOR CANCELLATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY IN SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW UP
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA, IN THE FORM OF RAIN. ONLY LIGHT RAIN HAS
BEEN REPORTED VERY SCARCELY ACROSS THE AREA. WE MADE THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
MORE THAN WHAT THE NBM HAD, JUST TO GIVE MORE COVERAGE. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL END AROUND 6PM CT WEST TO EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE IN THE NEXT 2 HOUR TO REACH THE NBM
HIGH TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THICK CLOUD COVER. AREAS OF
FALLING RAIN WILL ALSO BE COOLER, WITH THE COLDER AIR FALLING
WITH THE RAIN DROPS. WE STILL HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FOUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL 00Z. WE HAVE NOT YET SEEN WINDS GUSTING
TO 45MPH YET, OR SUSTAINED OF 35MPH OR MORE. SO, THE ADVISORY
MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 6PM CT. ALOFT THE PATTERN IS QUASI-
NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE WAVES OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, CREATING A LARGE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE 20 PLUS DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF
THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE STATE, MAINLY THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE RED
RIVER. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S, SNOW IS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE IT MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
CURRENTLY THE NBM ONLY HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FRIDAY
BETWEEN SUNRISE AND SUNSET. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE
CLIPPER, WINDS COULD GET WINDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER, AND MAY WARRANT AN ADVISORY LATER THIS WEEK. ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE CLIPPER, IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE (LOWER 30S) WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. THE SOUTHWEST IS FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO
STAY IN THE MID 40S FOR NOW. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD, THE NBM
TEMPERATURE RANGES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE 32
DEGREES AS OF NOW. THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO POSSIBLY ZONAL
OR SPLIT FLOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST WED FEB 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO IMPACT KJMS
AND SURROUNDING AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...HOLLAN/NH
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