940
FXUS63 KBIS 261532
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 AM CST WED FEB 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50-55 MPH POSSIBLE CENTRAL AND EAST.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND, WITH
LOW CHANCES (20 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER AFTER NEXT WEEK MONDAY, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST WED FEB 26 2025
THE FOG IN THE NORTH CENTRAL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE MISSOURI COTEAU, BETWEEN MINOT AND HAZEN.
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ABOVE ONE MILE. WITH THE VISIBILITY
IMPROVEMENT, WE MAY NOT NEED TO REISSUE THE SPS FOR THE FOG.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 611 AM CST WED FEB 26 2025
THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING REMAINS ON TRACK. AREAS OF FOG
NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL, AND HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS FOR NOW THROUGH 14Z, WITH AREA WEB
CAMS SHOWING LOW VISIBILITY AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST WED FEB 26 2025
CURRENTLY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST COASTAL REGION AND BROAD TROUGHING
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT, WITH AN AREA
OF ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE.
STEADY WEST/NORTHWEST WIND WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND INTO
NORTHWEST ND FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, AND WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF THIS ALONG THE MISSOURI PLATEAU THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WE
SAW ON TUESDAY, WITH A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THOUGH
MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY WILL DRAG
ANOTHER FROPA THROUGH THE REGION, RESULTING IN BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH MAINLY
AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
A STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN, MODELS
REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH A FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL S/WV
TROUGH/CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WAA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL RESULT IN ONE OF OUR WARMER DAYS OF THIS
LATEST WARM PERIOD ON THURSDAY, WITH A STEADY WEST/SOUTHWEST
MIXING WIND AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
FROM NEAR 40 IN THE TURTLE MTN AREA TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL. INITIAL COLD FROPA MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER 00Z FRI, FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A
SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PUSH FRI MORNING AFTER 12Z FRI.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW) WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF ND, THOUGH MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDED SOME POPS WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON
FRI WILL COOL AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY, WITH THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS WAVE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE WE WILL LIKELY
NEED WIND HEADLINES (HIGH END ADVISORY) FOR EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND DURING THIS PERIOD (THU NIGHT-FRI AFT),
WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HWO, AND MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.
WE REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR SATURDAY (HIGHS 20S EAST TO MID
40S SOUTHWEST) WITH A LINGERING COLD AIRMASS OVER THE DAKOTAS
AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION.
WEST COAST RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IS FLATTENED/WASHED OUT WITH A CONSTANT
BARRAGE OF S/WV TROUGHS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN CANADA
AND INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. STILL, WE'RE FAVORED TO
TREND WARMER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SOME MILD PACIFIC AIR SPILLS
EAST INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE RIDGE.
AFTER MONDAY, WE'RE FAVORED TO RETURN TO A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGING AGAIN OVER THE WEST COAST REGION AND
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
WHILE TIMING AND TRACK ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL WAVES
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FROPAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEK
(MON NIGHT/TUE AND MID TO LATE WEEK). THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER/TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL VALUES
(HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S...LOWS IN THE TEENS) ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING WITH ANY PASSING WAVE FOR NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST WED FEB 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY,
INCREASING TODAY TO 15-20 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO
IMPACT KJMS AND KMOT AND SURROUNDING AREAS THIS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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