089
FXUS63 KBIS 270533
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1133 PM CST WED FEB 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50-55 MPH POSSIBLE CENTRAL AND EAST.
- LOW CHANCES (20 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TREND BACK DOWN TO AVERAGE AFTER NEXT MONDAY,
ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED FEB 26 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
BELOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST WED FEB 26 2025
CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET THIS EVENING. A NEW DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAS INTRUDED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST,
THOUGH NO SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EVIDENT. HAVE BLENDED
SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS INTO THE SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM 15 TO 20 MPH AT THIS
TIME. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED FEB 26 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS FOUND OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT
THE TIME OF THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. MODERATE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
STRONGEST OBSERVATIONS OF GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH FOUND MAINLY
IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EVENING. A DECK OF MID LEVELS CLOUDS IS TRAVERSING
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED WEAK RADAR RETURNS. HOWEVER, LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND THIS EVENING DUE
TO A DRY NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. FOR THIS UPDATE, HAVE ADJUSTED SKY
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST BROADLY REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST WED FEB 26
CURRENTLY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN UTAH, IS INFLUENCING
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. ALOFT, A RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
THURSDAY THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY EVENING. THURSDAY
WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING SLIGHTLY EAST.
WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LARGELY IN THE 50S SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE RIVER. WITH THIS CLIPPER, A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL ALSO
OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CRATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE VERY STRONG.
A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR ALONG THE FRONT AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OFF THE LOW WILL CREATE THESE WINDS. THE CHALLENGE WITH
THIS IS THE FACT THAT THE COLD PUSH OF AIR AND TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOKS ONLY STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS. FOR THIS REASON WE
HAVE NOT PUT OUT A WATCH OR ADVISORY YET. THE STRONGEST WIND
PUSH LOOKS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z, MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN, BUT STILL A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE, ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST COULD BE SINGLE
DIGITS SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY THE RIDGE REFORMS, ALLOWING THE 20 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN THROUGH MONDAY. IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW,
MULTIPLE LITTLE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH, LEADING TO CHANCES (30
PERCENT) OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONDAY THE FLOW COULD TURN
SOUTHWEST WITH SOME MORE SHORTWAVES. HIGHS AFTER MONDAY WILL DIP
AGAIN BACK TO THE 30S, WHICH IS STILL AROUND AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED FEB 26 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE IN WESTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE THURSDAY, BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THIS, LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH, INCLUDING OVER THE TERMINALS OF KXWA AND
KMOT, BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH TO
ENCOMPASS ALL TERMINALS BY MID EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...TELKEN
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