050
FXUS63 KBIS 271153
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
553 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER.
- 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTH MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
TODAY EN ROUTE TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT. AN
INITIAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS. HOWEVER, THE BEST CAA DOESN'T ALIGN WELL WITH THE BEST
PRESSURE RISES, WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE MAXIMUM WIND
POTENTIAL. STILL, SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN DIVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH MAINLY DURING FRIDAY MORNING.
THOUGH STILL NOT PERFECTLY ALIGNED, SLIGHTLY BETTER PRESSURE
RISES OVERLAP WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF CAA. THIS WILL REINFORCE
ALREADY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH STRONGER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL. WINDS FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OVERALL, WITH THE
BEST CAA AND PRESSURE RISES NOT ALIGNING, AND BOTH FRONTAL
PASSAGES OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING, WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA SEEMS FAR MORE FAVORED OVERALL THAN HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY EFI VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.6 TO
0.8 WITH THE STRONGEST VALUES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
ONE OTHER NOTE IS THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SECONDARY FROPA FRIDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOSTLY SNOW, ALTHOUGH A LITTLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
BEYOND FRIDAY, THINGS LOOK QUIET THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH SATURDAY BEING AN EXCEPTION AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE STATE BRIEFLY RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE IN NORTH DAKOTA IN WINTER, THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
STRONGLY FAVORED TO RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
THE NBM PRODUCING 20 TO 40 PERCENT LIGHT SNOW CHANCES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN WESTERN
PARTS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN TAKE ON A
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AS WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND EXPAND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE TONIGHT. ALONG WITH THIS, LLWS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
ND. ONE THING LIMITING LLWS DURATION, AND CREATING UNCERTAINTY
IN JUST HOW MUCH ACTUALLY OCCURS, IS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THAT SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS WILL DIRECTIONALLY ALIGN WITH WINDS
IN THE LOW LEVELS RATHER QUICKLY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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