663
FXUS63 KBIS 271751
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1151 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER.
- 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTH MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST FROM WELLS TO DICKEY COUNTIES, WITH THE
BULK OF THIS CLOUD DECK IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS JUST ACROSS THE STATE LINE IN EASTERN MONTANA. WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE WINDS PICK UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, AS
EXPECTED, WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING. NO
BIG CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 910 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
THERE IS A MODEST SWATH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM
BOTTINEAU TO SARGENT COUNTIES, WITH SOME DIMINISHMENT ON THE
EDGES BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY.
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST, MORE HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THE SURFACE
TROUGH ARE EVIDENT, SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE WILL BE A SEASONABLY WARM DAY,
ALTHOUGH WITH INCREASING WINDS, ESPECIALLY WEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
TODAY EN ROUTE TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT. AN
INITIAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS. HOWEVER, THE BEST CAA DOESN'T ALIGN WELL WITH THE BEST
PRESSURE RISES, WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE MAXIMUM WIND
POTENTIAL. STILL, SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN DIVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH MAINLY DURING FRIDAY MORNING.
THOUGH STILL NOT PERFECTLY ALIGNED, SLIGHTLY BETTER PRESSURE
RISES OVERLAP WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF CAA. THIS WILL REINFORCE
ALREADY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH STRONGER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL. WINDS FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OVERALL, WITH THE
BEST CAA AND PRESSURE RISES NOT ALIGNING, AND BOTH FRONTAL
PASSAGES OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING, WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA SEEMS FAR MORE FAVORED OVERALL THAN HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY EFI VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.6 TO
0.8 WITH THE STRONGEST VALUES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
ONE OTHER NOTE IS THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SECONDARY FROPA FRIDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOSTLY SNOW, ALTHOUGH A LITTLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
BEYOND FRIDAY, THINGS LOOK QUIET THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH SATURDAY BEING AN EXCEPTION AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE STATE BRIEFLY RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE IN NORTH DAKOTA IN WINTER, THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
STRONGLY FAVORED TO RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
THE NBM PRODUCING 20 TO 40 PERCENT LIGHT SNOW CHANCES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD, WITH HIGH CLOUDS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS STRONG WINDS AND LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
LLWS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT, ENDING AT ALL TERMIANSL BY AROUND 10Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN WITH
A COLD FRONT AFTER 12Z ON FRIDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE AT ANY TERMINALS WITH THIS UPDATE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...JONES
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