896
FXUS63 KBIS 272049
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 PM CST THU FEB 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER.
- 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 27 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, BROAD TROUGHING WAS PLACED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DUE TO A BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A DEEP SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN, LEADING TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS. CIRRUS WAS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH MORE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM, BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED UP QUITE NICELY WITH A BROAD SWATH OF LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S WEST AND SOUTH,
AND 40S NORTH CENTRAL.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FROM MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TRACKS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE, BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT DOES NOT HAVE STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WITH IT, AND COMBINED WITH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF
ADVISORY (SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH). THE
SECONDARY, MORE POTENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, BRINGING MORE
NOTABLE PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL PRODUCE
STRONGER WINDS, FOCUSED ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, DIMINISHING RELATIVELY
QUICKLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE, WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. THE ADVISORY BEGINS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA, EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, AND CONTINUING THROUGH
DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW BEFORE ENDING NORTH TO SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A CHANCE TO HAVE A FEW ISOLATED 60 MPH GUSTS, WITH THE LATEST NBM
ADVERTISING A 10 TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TO HIT THIS THRESHOLD, WE FELT THE LIKELIHOOD OF REACHING
THIS CRITERIA OVER A LARGE AREA WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGH
WIND WARNING AT THIS TIME.
TOMORROW MORNING WE ARE CARRYING A BROAD 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL, PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST, AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH
THIS UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN, AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS PRIMARILY SNOW, WITH THE COLUMN
COOLING RAPIDLY FROM THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS FROM SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN ON THE LEADING EDGE BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE RELATIVELY LOW,
WITH PRETTY LACKLUSTER MOISTURE THAT AS OF NOW, LIMITS CONCERN
FOR SNOW SQUALLS.
BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO QUIETER WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS. SATURDAY WILL
STILL HAVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH THE FAR WEST WILL
BE RELATIVELY MILD, BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES CLOSER ON
SUNDAY AND BOOSTS TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT AND
PROGRESSION OF BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A DEEP CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS IS
FAVORED TO STAY SOUTH AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE A SECONDARY SYSTEM
WILL FOLLOW PRETTY QUICKLY, WITH BLENDED POPS PRODUCING A BROAD
30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, AND NBM
TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES
COOLING BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 30S, TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD, WITH HIGH CLOUDS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS STRONG WINDS AND LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
LLWS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT, ENDING AT ALL TERMINALS BY AROUND 10Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN WITH
A COLD FRONT AFTER 12Z ON FRIDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE AT ANY TERMINALS WITH THIS UPDATE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ018>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-
050-051.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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