605
FXUS63 KBIS 272345
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
545 PM CST THU FEB 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER.
- 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST THU FEB 27 2025
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY FROM 15
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THE TIME OF THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE.
A DECK OF MID TO HIGH BASED CLOUDS HAS BEGUN MOVING IN ACROSS
THE NORTH AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSING CROSSING OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES, WHILE THE MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS FROM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALMOST EXITED ACROSS THE NORTH DAKOTA,
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AT THIS TIME. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE
PERFORMED AT THIS TIME, AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 27 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, BROAD TROUGHING WAS PLACED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DUE TO A BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A DEEP SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN, LEADING TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS. CIRRUS WAS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH MORE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM, BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED UP QUITE NICELY WITH A BROAD SWATH OF LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S WEST AND SOUTH,
AND 40S NORTH CENTRAL.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FROM MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TRACKS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE, BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT DOES NOT HAVE STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WITH IT, AND COMBINED WITH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF
ADVISORY (SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH). THE
SECONDARY, MORE POTENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, BRINGING MORE
NOTABLE PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL PRODUCE
STRONGER WINDS, FOCUSED ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, DIMINISHING RELATIVELY
QUICKLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE, WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE ADVISORY BEGINS THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA, EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, AND
CONTINUING THROUGH DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW BEFORE ENDING NORTH TO
SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE TO HAVE A FEW ISOLATED 60 MPH
GUSTS, WITH THE LATEST NBM ADVERTISING A 10 TO 25 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO HIT THIS
THRESHOLD, WE FELT THE LIKELIHOOD OF REACHING THIS CRITERIA OVER
A LARGE AREA WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGH WIND WARNING AT
THIS TIME.
TOMORROW MORNING WE ARE CARRYING A BROAD 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL, PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST, AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN
CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF FREEZING
RAIN, AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS PRIMARILY SNOW,
WITH THE COLUMN COOLING RAPIDLY FROM THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE COULD BE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS
FROM SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN ON
THE LEADING EDGE BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS ARE RELATIVELY LOW, WITH PRETTY LACKLUSTER MOISTURE
THAT AS OF NOW, LIMITS CONCERN FOR SNOW SQUALLS.
BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO QUIETER WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS. SATURDAY
WILL STILL HAVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH THE FAR WEST
WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD, BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES CLOSER ON
SUNDAY AND BOOSTS TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A DEEP CLOSED
LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS IS FAVORED TO STAY SOUTH AND
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER,
IT LOOKS LIKE A SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW PRETTY QUICKLY,
WITH BLENDED POPS PRODUCING A BROAD 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, AND NBM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL,
MAINLY IN THE 30S, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST THU FEB 27 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY CAN BE FOUND AT ALL TERMINALS TO
BEGIN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, A COLD WILL
PASS ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA, INTRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE KDIK AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST UPDATE. LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. THIS
DECK IS ANTICIPATED TO SOMEWHAT DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS, HOWEVER, REPRESENT THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD.
LLWS SHEAR IS PRESENT AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING, AND WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BY
AROUND 10Z. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KNOTS EXPECTED
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ018>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-
050-051.
UPDATE...ADAM
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...ADAM
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