609
FXUS63 KBIS 281158
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
558 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL, EAST OF HIGHWAY 83, WHILE THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE NORTH CENTRAL.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW ENTERED NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AS EXPECTED, WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE QUITE
STRONG WITH ROLLA BRIEFLY GUSTING TO 59 MPH. THIS IS A FAIR
AMOUNT HIGHER THAN SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS, AND WHAT HAD BEEN
OBSERVED UPSTREAM. THEREFORE, SUSPECT THERE MAY HAVE BEEN SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. REGARDLESS, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE, MODELS HAVEN'T BEEN GRASPING SKY COVER WELL,
SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
CURRENTLY, THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE
PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THIS CLIPPER HAS
ALREADY PASSED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE ARE A FEW
ISOLATED WIND OBSERVATIONS OF 30 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR WIND
GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR GREATER, OVERALL THE DYNAMICS JUST HAVEN'T
BEEN FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE REAL STRONG WINDS WITH THIS INITIAL
FROPA. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS NOW
DRAPED WEST TO EAST OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE DYNAMICS FOR THIS SECONDARY FROPA ARE FAR MORE FAVORABLE
FOR VERY STRONG WINDS. IN THIS CASE, THE BEST CAA SHOULD
OVERLAP WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES, WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE
ELEVATED AS WELL. OVERALL, AS SUPPORTED BY THE EFI WITH VALUES
MAINLY FROM .7 TO .9, CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA (SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER AND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER).
HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
THEREFORE THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. AS
MENTIONED IN PRIOR DISCUSSIONS, BRIEF PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW, IS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS SECONDARY FROPA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, AFTER WHICH VERY BENIGN AND OVERALL MILD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES FOR
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL SEE NEAR
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW, ARE THEN ON TAP FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCES (30 TO 40
PERCENT) FOR SNOW ARE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH
A LARGE CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ON MOST DAYS FROM NORTHEASTERN
ND TO SOUTHWESTERN ND, VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR THE
DETAILED FORECAST AT YOUR LOCATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ENTERED NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS, PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL ND SO
LEFT OUT OF 12Z TAFS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY MUCH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THOUGH ARE UNLIKELY TO PERSIST IN ANY ONE AREA
FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NORTHWEST
WHERE SOME MODELS SUGGEST LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LLWS CONTINUES OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN
(LIKELY SOUTH OF DICKINSON AT THIS POINT) AND MUCH OF CENTRAL
ND. LLWS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ018>022-034-035-042-045-046.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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