415
FXUS63 KBIS 281816
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1216 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
COLD FRONT HAS MOSTLY SETTLED IN ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MANY SITES ACROSS THE NORTH HAVE SEEN WINDS
DIMINISHED TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THUS HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE IN THESE AREAS, MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR. THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY IS STILL SEEING ELEVATED
WINDS NEAR TO AT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOST HI-RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING WINDS SHOULD START GOING ON A DIMINISHING TREND LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND
ADVISORY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT, WHILE MILD TEMPERATURES LINGER IN THE SOUTHWEST. A BAND
OF LOWER CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY, ALTHOUGH REPORTS OF ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THESE CLOUDS
HAS BEEN LIMITED, THUS KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE. LIMITED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTICED IN
OUR CWA, ALTHOUGH STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO
BEEN FOUND, WITH A GUST TO 55 KNOTS (63 MPH). OVERALL THESE HIGH
WIND REPORTS HAVE BEEN ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW ENTERED NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AS EXPECTED, WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE QUITE
STRONG WITH ROLLA BRIEFLY GUSTING TO 59 MPH. THIS IS A FAIR
AMOUNT HIGHER THAN SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS, AND WHAT HAD BEEN
OBSERVED UPSTREAM. THEREFORE, SUSPECT THERE MAY HAVE BEEN SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. REGARDLESS, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE, MODELS HAVEN'T BEEN GRASPING SKY COVER WELL,
SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
CURRENTLY, THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE
PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THIS CLIPPER HAS
ALREADY PASSED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE ARE A FEW
ISOLATED WIND OBSERVATIONS OF 30 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR WIND
GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR GREATER, OVERALL THE DYNAMICS JUST HAVEN'T
BEEN FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE REAL STRONG WINDS WITH THIS INITIAL
FROPA. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS NOW
DRAPED WEST TO EAST OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE DYNAMICS FOR THIS SECONDARY FROPA ARE FAR MORE FAVORABLE
FOR VERY STRONG WINDS. IN THIS CASE, THE BEST CAA SHOULD
OVERLAP WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES, WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE
ELEVATED AS WELL. OVERALL, AS SUPPORTED BY THE EFI WITH VALUES
MAINLY FROM .7 TO .9, CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA (SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER AND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER).
HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
THEREFORE THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. AS
MENTIONED IN PRIOR DISCUSSIONS, BRIEF PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW, IS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS SECONDARY FROPA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, AFTER WHICH VERY BENIGN AND OVERALL MILD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES FOR
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL SEE NEAR
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW, ARE THEN ON TAP FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCES (30 TO 40
PERCENT) FOR SNOW ARE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH
A LARGE CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ON MOST DAYS FROM NORTHEASTERN
ND TO SOUTHWESTERN ND, VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR THE
DETAILED FORECAST AT YOUR LOCATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
COLD FRONT TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND MVFR CLOUDS TODAY,
WITH SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THIS FRONT COULD
ALSO BRING SOME MVFR CLOUD COVER TO MOST SITES THROUGH TODAY.
THIS BAND OF CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT, LINGERING MVFR
CLOUD COVER, WHILE SOME EASTERN SITES SEE VFR CONDITIONS. ALL
SITES SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME EASTERLY. A FEW
CENTRAL SITES (MAINLY FROM KMOT TO KBIS) COULD THEN SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SEES VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ018>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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