216
FXUS63 KBIS 011730
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1130 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LARGE RANGE IN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY FROM WEST
TO EAST, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 50 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
- TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE STATEWIDE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE
50S SOUTH.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (30 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
TO NEAR AVERAGE (HIGHS IN THE 30S).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
GUIDANCE DOESN'T SEEM TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON WHAT TO DO WITH
THE CLOUD COVER OUT THERE AS IT HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO ERODE.
TWEAKED THE SKY COVER GRIDDED FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT THESE TRENDS. WE SHOULD START TO SEE
THESE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE, JUST BLENDED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING
FORECAST AND UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 909 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE AS A QUIET MORNING
CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING REMAINS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO WEATHER ELEMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. SEE BELOW FOR FURTHER
DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
CURRENTLY, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RESULTS IN A MILD
AIRMASS TO OUR WEST AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO OUR EAST. STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST RESULTS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
EAST TO THE UPPER 20S WEST. LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND THIS MORNING, WEST OF AN AREA OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WHICH PUTS AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. OPTED TO KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING.
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE LOWER 50S OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
MORNING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
TAKES OVER.
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT IS
THEN FLATTENED/WASHED OUT OVER OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING MUCH WARMER
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MILD PACIFIC AIR SPILLS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS WITH THE RIDGE.
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
BOTH NORTHERN STREAM S/WV'S AND A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW
BRINGING DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY WILL SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY NIGHT, THEN TRANSITIONS TO MAINLY SNOW FOR
TUESDAY AS CAA SPREADS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TUE AND WED, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WILL SEE
SOME GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL ON TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT,
WHEN A STRONG SFC LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERALL,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF QPF OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND, WHERE A
TENTH OR 2 IS POSSIBLE.
WE'RE THEN FAVORED TO RETURN TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING REBUILDING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. NBM HAS A DRY FORECAST AFTER TUESDAY OF THIS
COMING WEEK, THOUGH ANY EMBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW
ALOFT COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING A BIT, BUT
NOTHING NOTEWORTHY AND CURRENTLY FAVORED TO SLOWLY TREND WARMER
WED-FRI.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
SCATTERED IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS (ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KJMS). AFTER THESE CEILINGS SCATTER
OUT, WE SHOULD GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...ZH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page