384
FXUS63 KBIS 012337
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
537 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE STATEWIDE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 40 NORTH
TO THE 50S SOUTH.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
TO NEAR AVERAGE (HIGHS IN THE 30S).
- AFTER COOLER TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK, ANOTHER WARMUP IS POSSIBLE
AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
PESKY CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY ERODED TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR, BUT
STILL PERSISTS TO THE EAST. RECENT RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOWER
STRATUS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PRIMARILY ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM NEAR BOTTINEAU TO JAMESTOWN.
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA,
EXTENDING DOWN TO THE TIOGA/STANLEY AREAS. THIS FOG COULD BE DRIVEN
BY DIFFERENTIAL COOLING ALONG THE RETREATING STRATUS OVER A
LINGERING SNOWPACK, AND THE TIOGA/STANLEY AREAS ARE KNOWN TO BE
PROLIFIC FOR FOG FORMATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY SITS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY, GIVING WAY TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT AND A SUNNY SUNDAY.
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A DRY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE. THE PARENT AXIS THEN MOVES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS IT
DEAMPLIFIES AND WE TRANSITION TO SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN
WILL MEAN MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
(NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S EAST, TO THE LOW TO MID 30S WEST), WITH HIGHS
MAINLY RANGING FROM AROUND 40 ACROSS THE NORTH, TO THE 50S
SOUTH. ON SUNDAY, WE DO HAVE A SHOT TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND WE MAY ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, A COLORADO LOW WILL KICK
OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING CHANCES (30 TO 60 PERCENT) OF RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY
EVENING, GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW ON TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME SNOW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE AFTERNOON
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME (THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME), PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. NBM PROBABILITIES OF
LIQUID AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR GREATER MAX OUT IN THE
30 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
(HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY SEE A GLANCING
INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN LOW). INCREASING THE THRESHOLD TO A
HALF INCH OF LIQUID, AND THE PROBABILITIES MAX OUT AROUND 20
PERCENT SOUTHEAST. REGARDING ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW, NBM
PROBABILITIES ONLY MAX OUT AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR AN INCH OR
GREATER. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THESE WAVES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SOME WINDY CONDITIONS (WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH) ON
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. AFTER TUESDAY,
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, WE WILL
SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH A MODEST WARMUP TO END THE WEEK. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT BEING SAID, NBM TEMPERATURE
SPREADS START TO INCREASE FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO START THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THESE HAVE ALREADY PUSHED EAST OF KBIS AND SHOULD
SOON PUSH EAST OF KMOT. FROM EAST OF KMOT DOWN THROUGH KJMS AND
SURROUNDING AREAS, MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ASIDE FROM
THESE CLOUDS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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