073
FXUS63 KBIS 021732
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1132 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE STATEWIDE
TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 40 NORTH
TO THE 50S SOUTH.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40 TO 70 PERCENT) FOR RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
TO NEAR AVERAGE (HIGHS IN THE 30S) THEREAFTER.
- AFTER COOLER TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK, ANOTHER WARMUP IS THEN
FORECAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. JUST UPDATED THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 911 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
A QUIET MORNING CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR THIS UPDATE, JUST BLENDED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
TO THE GOING FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 626 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
QUIET WEATHER, AND NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SEE BELOW FOR
FURTHER DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
CURRENTLY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES AND
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER RIDGE, MID LEVEL WAA CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION, RESULTING IN MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
TODAY, WITH CONTINUED WAA ACROSS OUR REGION LEADING TO AN
UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER TO AROUND 60 SOUTHWEST. RIDGE IS FLATTENED/WASHED OUT
OVER OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AS SPLIT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. WE WILL
BE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE, SO ANOTHER
MILD DAY ON MONDAY IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE
LOWER/MID 50S SOUTH.
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH BOTH
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV'S AND A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW BRINGING
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. PRECIP LOOKS TO INITIALLY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY NIGHT, TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVERNIGHT BUT PERHAPS REMAINING A MIX WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW TILL SOMETIME ON TUESDAY ONCE CAA
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TUE AND WED, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S
AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WILL SEE SOME GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL ON TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT, WHEN A
STRONG SFC LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF QPF OUTSIDE
OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND, WHERE UPWARDS TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS QPF IS LIGHT,
WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OVER DICKY COUNTY POSSIBLE BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST OUTPUT.
WE'RE STILL FAVORED TO RETURN TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING REBUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NBM MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST AFTER
TUESDAY OF THIS COMING WEEK, THOUGH ANY EMBEDDED WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING A BIT, BUT NOTHING NOTEWORTHY AND
CURRENTLY FAVORED TO SLOWLY TREND WARMER MID WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE
NORTH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH
REGARDING EXACT FOG PLACEMENT AND DENSITY, SO WILL JUST
ADVERTISE VCFG FOR KXWA AND KMOT FOR NOW.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...ZH
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