398
FXUS63 KBIS 030248
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
848 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN MONDAY BEFORE A MIDWEEK
COOLDOWN (HIGHS IN THE 30S).
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40 TO 80 PERCENT) FOR RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50 TO 80
PERCENT) FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL.
- ANOTHER WARMUP IS THEN FORECAST TO START AT THE VERY END OF
THE WEEK AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 849 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
OTHER THAN A FEW SPORADIC HIGH CLOUDS, CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY NARROWING IN THE NORTH,
ALTHOUGH FOG HAS NOT YET BEEN OBSERVED IN THE CWA. HOWEVER,
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS FOG IS LIKELY DEVELOPING IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN. AS SUCH, PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND REMAINS FAVORED THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
A BEAUTIFUL SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF WISPY
HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY AS SNOWPACK IS
ALMOST COMPLETELY GONE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WITH SOME SITES
EVEN IN THE LOWER 60S. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN
THE 40S. WE SHOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO WARM EVEN MORE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL APPROACH THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER TONIGHT AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE ON MONDAY
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS, PATCHY WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND A CLEAR SKY
MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST CAMS ARE
TARGETING THE NORTH FOR FOG FORMATION SO A TIME-LAGGED RAP WAS
USED AS A FIRST GUESS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AND KEPT MENTION
OF IT AS PATCHY FOR NOW. LATER IN THE DAY, EXPECT ONE MORE
AFTERNOON OF ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. THUS, HIGHS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH MAY ONLY BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY
OF READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW DAYS, A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS STILL FAVORED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA: A COLORADO LOW WILL KICK OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND AN OPEN NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE WILL APPROACH OUR DOORSTEP FROM MONTANA AND CANADA.
WITH SOME INFLUENCE FROM BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS, MEDIUM TO HIGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40 TO 80 PERCENT) WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT, TAPERING OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE ON TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN FOR MOST, CHANGING TO SNOW
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE NORTHWEST WILL SEE MAINLY SNOW
AND THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN. THE TREND SINCE
YESTERDAY'S FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN FOR THE SOUTHERN LOW TO
TREND EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO BE
A TOUCH STRONGER. THUS, NBM PROBABILITIES ARE NOW SUGGESTING
SOME MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50 TO 80 PERCENT) FOR AN INCH OF
SNOW OR GREATER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL. WHEN THE THRESHOLD IS INCREASED TO TWO INCHES,
PROBABILITIES MAX OUT IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. AN INCH OR TWO CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, BUT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND.
ON A FINAL NOTE ABOUT TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE SOME MODEST PRESSURE
RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION WHICH COULD
MAKE THE DAY RATHER WINDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST. DEPENDING ON HOW THE FORECAST EVOLVES, A WIND
HEADLINE COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AND VICINITY.
OUR REGION WILL SETTLE BACK INTO MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND, PROMOTING DRY WEATHER
AND ANOTHER WARMUP AFTER THE MIDWEEK COOLDOWN. HIGHS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S. THE WARMUP THEN
COMMENCES ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE FORECAST TO RETURN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
VFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE STATE AND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH TWO MAIN EXCEPTIONS. FIRST,
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS
OF THE STATE TONIGHT. KMOT IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO BE
IMPACTED BY THIS, BUT KXWA MAY SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM FOG
AS WELL. SECOND, AS THE FOG CLEARS, MVFR/IFR CEILINGS MAY
PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE FAR NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY
THEN BEGIN EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...TELKEN
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