617
FXUS63 KBIS 030913
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
313 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY, BEFORE A MIDWEEK
COOLDOWN BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE 30S.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40 TO 80 PERCENT) FOR SNOW TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES (50 TO 70 PERCENT) FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL.
- ANOTHER WARMUP IS THEN FORECAST TO START THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK, LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
A MOSTLY CLEAR MORNING CONTINUES, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUR
FAR NORTHWEST LINGERING AROUND. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN DIVIDE COUNTY, EXTENDING
NORTHWEST INTO CANADA. SHORT-RANGE VISIBILITY MODELS DO STILL
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS FOG TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF NORTH DAKOTA, THOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
EASTWARD EXPANSION IS BEING A BIT SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
ANTICIPATED. STILL, WE'VE KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MORNING HOURS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, A RATHER MILD MORNING IS
EXPECTED, WITH LOWS LARGELY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE NORTHWEST, THOUGH IT'S ARRIVAL WILL BE A
BIT LATER ON IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT, HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 50S, WHILE
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH (ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST) WILL REMAIN A
BIT COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. INITIALLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO OVERCAST SKIES, WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED
BETWEEN A COLORADO LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH, WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS HAVE CONTINUED TO
PUSH THIS COLORADO LOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGIONS SEEING LESS PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THE
TROUGH AXIS TO OUR NORTH HAS ALSO BEEN PUSHED A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH AS WELL, WHICH HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR STATE SEEING A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION.
LUCKILY, THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE VERY TRANSIENT IN NATURE,
WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING NOT TOO ENTIRELY STRONG.
CURRENTLY, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS LIGHT SNOW, INITIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL AROUND 10 PM CST, BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND EXITING THE REGION ENTIRELY BY AROUND NOON CST
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LIGHT RATES CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM, OVERALL SNOW TOTALS SEEM TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL, TO AROUND 1
TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
SNOW TOTALS EXCEEDING AN INCH ARE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE
IN THE NORTHWEST, DROPPING SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE
THE PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ARE ONLY AROUND 10 TO
20 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST. SO, CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY PRETTY
HIGH WHEN IT COMES TO LOCATIONS SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW, UP TO
AN INCH, WITH CONFIDENCE DROPPING OFF WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2
INCHES. THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY MAY BRIEFLY SEE
SOME FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW, THOUGH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME, WITH ONLY
AROUND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TURNS
NORTHERLY, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST, INDUCING SOME MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
PRESSURE RISES. AS A RESULT, WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY, WHERE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS EXCEEDING HEADLINE CRITERIA
CONTINUES TO GROW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE PRETTY COOL
RELATIVE TO WHAT WE'VE HAD RECENTLY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, FLOW ALOFT
TURNS NORTHWESTERLY, WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD EAST INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS. AS A RESULT, WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE A VERY
GRADUAL WARMUP, WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS BENIGN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL ALSO PROMOTE SOMEWHAT DRY CONDITIONS, WITH VERY
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY FORECAST, ALONG WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, WE MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
HOWEVER, NBM SPREADS THIS FAR OUT ARE STILL A BIT WIDE, SO
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TEMPERATURE IS STILL A BIT LOW.
REGARDLESS, THE WARMING TREND IS STILL GENERALLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE STATE AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE IN
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE TERMINAL MOST LIKELY IMPACTED
IS KMOT, ALTHOUGH KXWA MAY SEE FOG AS WELL. MVFR STRATUS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND
WHERE FOG EITHER DOESN'T DEVELOP, OR AS FOG CLEARS OFF. MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR/LIFR STRATUS IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ND MONDAY EVENING AS THE
NEXT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS INCLUDES AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT KXWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BESSON
AVIATION...TELKEN
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