518
FXUS63 KBIS 032055
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
255 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE A
MIDWEEK COOLDOWN BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE 30S AROUND NORMAL.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40 TO 70 PERCENT) FOR AN INCH OF SNOW
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OUT WEST. LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR AT
LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW OUT WEST. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
CENTRAL AND EAST.
- ANOTHER WARMUP IS THEN FORECAST TO START BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTH BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING BRINGING IN COLD TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BY THE TOMORROW. THIS SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO
BRING AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WEST AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE IS
GOING TO FOLLOW A DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY
CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA, BUT IS FORECAST
TO STAY FAR SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
THE PROBABILITY OF AN INCH OF SNOW OUT WEST IS FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 40-70 PERCENT OUT WEST. THERE IS AROUND A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW OUT WEST. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH HOWEVER
PROBABILITIES REMAIN THE LOWEST. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WEST
TO EAST IT COULD START AS RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEK AS ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OUT WEST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SUBTLE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL (WHICH IS AROUND
34) BY WEDNESDAY. BY FRIDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE WARMING INTO
THE MID 30S TO 40S AND 50S BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TODAY ACROSS THE
STATE. LOW STRATUS WILL ENTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. SNOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW. SNOW WILL CAUSE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BACK FROM THE EAST TO
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 25 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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