352
FXUS63 KBIS 121145
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES
(60-95%) FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH MONDAY. COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING, WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS.
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER ARE FORECAST
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
UPDATED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE EDITS TO
THE FORECAST WERE MINOR WITH THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
CURRENTLY, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA, WHICH DEAMPLIFIED AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. LEAD EMBEDDED
IMPULSES ORIGINATING OUT OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUE TO GENERATE ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ND. WHILE DOUBTFUL
MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS REACHING THE SFC WITH CLOUD BASES AT
OR ABOVE 8-10K FT AGL, A FEW OBSERVING SITES HAVE REPORTED
TRACE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE, SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS FOR
THIS ACTIVITY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING.
MAINLY DRY TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT OUR
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MON. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AND MUCH
LIGHTER COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NW TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TODAY, THEN WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT
CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LEAD EMBEDDED IMPULSES
MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL ND DURING THE DAY TODAY, WITH THE MAIN FORCING ARRIVING
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. INITIAL WAVE OF ELEVATED POPS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT, AS A SFC
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTO CENTRAL ND. A FEW T-STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY OVER
OUR FAR SOUTH. UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. MID LEVEL LOW THEN MOVES INTO WESTERN ND SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES PIVOTING NORTH
INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE AS DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW INTO MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
INTO EASTERN ND SUN AFT/EVE, WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THIS FEATURE'S TROWAL WILL THEN SEE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
SOUTHWARD AGAIN, ENCOMPASSING MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND.
THE HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
COINCIDES WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS AREA WILL ALSO
SEE THE LONGER DURATION OF PRECPITATION, WHERE A QUASI-
STATIONARY/SLOWLY EAST MOVING INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
LOCATED. LATEST WPC QPF INCREASED, WITH AROUND AN INCH OR MORE
OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTH. QPF ALSO INCREASED
FARTHER SOUTH, NOW LOOKING AT A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF
MOISTURE, WHICH WILL DEPEND ON ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MOVES LATER SUNDAY AND SUN NIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUN NIGHT/MON AM AS COLDER AIR IS PULLED SOUTH IN
THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS
WITH THIS AT THIS TIME.
THIS INITIAL UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. RESULTANT WEATHER WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND COVERAGE DECREASING SUN NIGHT WEST TO EAST, WITH CONTINUED
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION,
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS
GRADIENT FORCING INCREASES. 850MB JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WILL BRING THE STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY ND. MODELS DIFFER ON AVAILABLE MIXING, SO FOR NOW
OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR THIS PERIOD. WILL
MENTION THE POSSIBLE STRONG WINDS IN THE HWO FOR NOW. ANOTHER
WINDY DAY WITH POTENTIAL HEADLINES ON MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY S/WV SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION,
MAINTAINING STRONG GRADIENT FORCING AND DECENT LAPSE RATES.
ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE TUE AND WED,
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES, MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTIONS OF AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
ALASKA AND ANOTHER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NBM HAS A COOLING TREND TO END THE WEEK, ALONG WITH
A PERIOD OF ELEVATED POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATER TODAY,
AND ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT, CLOUD LEVELS WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW VFR
EXPECTED WEST ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN, INCLUDING
BOTH KXWA AND KDIK. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY, ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY TODAY AT 10
TO 15 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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