188
FXUS63 KBIS 122052
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
352 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES
(60-95%) FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH MONDAY.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST LATE TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO SUSTAIN WINDS AROUND 30 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
- SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING, WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS.
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER ARE FORECAST
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WAVE PASSING OVER EASTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL AS THE
WAVE APPROACH THE STATE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME INSTABILITY CREEPS INTO
THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW CONTINUING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS AROUND
AROUND A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.5 INCH IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM, BUT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
TRAIL THIS SYSTEM BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE STATE MONDAY
AS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT LINGERS FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LOW. THESE TWO SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BLEND TOGETHER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO COOL OFF IN THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO SIT IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A 40 TO 45 KTS 850 MBS WINDS THAT ARE
FORECAST TO MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP SUSTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUD COVER COULD INHIBIT SOME MIXING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON LIMITING GUSTS BUT SUSTAINS WINDS SHOULD NOT BE
IMPACTED AS MUCH. THEREFORE, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MONDAY ANOTHER
ROUND OF A WINDY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AS A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD LEAD TO ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TREND WARMER BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BACK
INTO THE 60S WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. HOWEVER, COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS WARM UP AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING UNTIL A SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION BRINGING IN RAIN AND LOWER CIGS. CIGS WILL
LOWER ACROSS THE STATE TO MVFR AND MAYBE SOME POCKETS OF IFR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THERE MIGHT BE
SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FOR SHOWERS AND RAIN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT THE EAST TO NORTHEAST TODAY SWITCHING TO WESTERLY BY
TOMORROW MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT
/MIDNIGHT MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ040>045.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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