673
FXUS63 KBIS 130739
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
239 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60-95%) FOR RAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH MONDAY.
- STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER ARE FORECAST
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO END
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENS TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA, WHILE THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW SITS ACROSS THE BORDER
BETWEEN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING, WITH SOME LIGHTNING PRESENT IN
THE SHOWERS STRADDLING THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.
RAINFALL RATES HAVEN'T BEEN TOO HIGH FROM WHAT WE'VE SEEN, WITH
REPORTS OF SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CELLS PRODUCING AROUND 0.15
INCHES OF RAIN.
AS THE LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE AND THE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST, RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST,
WITH A DRY SLOT NUDGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WRAP-AROUND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL THEN RE-ENTER THE WEST SHORTLY THEREAFTER,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE STATE. QPF
VALUES ARE STILL HIGHEST IN THE NORTH, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE
NORTHWEST EXCEEDING AN INCH, WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTH, VALUES
RANGING FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW, A RATHER POTENT
850MB JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY, WITH THE
NOSE OF THIS JET EXPANDING INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS, COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE DRY SLOT AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE LOW, WILL RESULT IN SOME STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, STRONGEST IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. SHOULD THERE BE SOME DECENT CLEARING IN THE DRY SLOT,
THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE WE COULD GET SOME OF THE STRONGER GUSTS
TO MIX DOWN, THOUGH THE STRONGEST PART OF THE JET IS DISPLACED
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE A WIND
ADVISORY OUT FOR SLOPE, BOWMAN, HETTINGER, ADAMS, GRANT, AND
SIOUX COUNTIES, TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STRONGER WINDS. SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH, ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO MONDAY,
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A RAIN-SNOW MIX WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE DAY, THOUGH IN GENERAL THIS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT COMPARED
TO THE MAIN PUSH OF THE SYSTEM TODAY. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
LOW COMBINED WITH THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA, WITH THE STRONGEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FLOWING
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LOOKING AHEAD, AN ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE WARRANTED, THOUGH WE WILL AWAIT FURTHER MODEL GUIDANCE
BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA, MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND
30 PERCENT, THOUGH WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL HOPEFULLY REMAIN RATHER LOW. IT IS CERTAINLY WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON THOUGH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN RECENT,
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF SOME RIDGING ALOFT,
AND HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S. HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE, THOUGH WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRESENT ANY CONCERNS WITH
REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER. WEDNESDAY SEES THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW, RESULTING IN SOME LOW CHANCES
FOR RAIN. THESE CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER INTO THURSDAY, AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE A BIT COOLER AGAIN, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGING TO
FOLLOW THEREAFTER, ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE PRESENT AT THE MOMENT, THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, CEILINGS WILL DROP TO
MVFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, AND IFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL, IMPACTING KDIK, FROM AROUND 11Z TO 20Z. INITIALLY
LIGHT WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH
SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE,
AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. THE FAR SOUTHWEST MAY SEE EVEN STRONGER
WINDS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 1 AM
CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ040>045.
DISCUSSION...BESSON
AVIATION...BESSON
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