936
FXUS63 KBIS 131757
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1257 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60 TO 95 PERCENT) FOR RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
- STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER ARE FORECAST
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO END
THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY EVOLVING AS EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT SNOW
HAS BEEN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NORTH AT TIMES BUT WE SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN HERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. CAMS ARE STARTING TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON. RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE COULD HAVE A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF 200 TO 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE WE HAVE SEEN SOME DRY SLOTTING/CLEARING.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SURFACE VORTICITY
UNDER AND THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY CAN OVERLAP THIS ENHANCED VORTICITY, A COUPLE OF
WEAK FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE IT APPEARS
TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME (LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY MAY BE A TOUCH TOO WEAK), IT IS WORTH MENTIONING AS
THESE SETUPS SEEM TO SNEAK UP QUITE OFTEN DURING THESE
TRANSITION MONTHS. THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
AS WE'VE SEEN SEVERAL GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
THE INITIAL PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS NOW MOVED EAST OF THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE MAIN LOW IS STARTING TO PIVOT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL CONTINUE HERE AND ALONG THE LOW'S PATH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHEAST.
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WILL SEE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOTTING SETTLES IN. FOR THIS UPDATE, JUST
TWEAKED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BETTER REFLECT RADAR
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE, JUST BLENDED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
RAIN SHOWERS EXTEND FROM SIOUX COUNTY NORTH THROUGH RENVILLE
COUNTY, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE
I-94 CORRIDOR FROM BISMARCK THROUGH JAMESTOWN. DRY SLOTTING HAS
TAKEN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
THE WRAPAROUND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING,
EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND BRINGING ABOUT ANOTHER
WAVE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. MOST CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE WERE MADE TO THE POPS TO BETTER
REFLECT WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENS TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA, WHILE THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW SITS ACROSS THE BORDER
BETWEEN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING, WITH SOME LIGHTNING PRESENT IN
THE SHOWERS STRADDLING THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.
RAINFALL RATES HAVEN'T BEEN TOO HIGH FROM WHAT WE'VE SEEN, WITH
REPORTS OF SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CELLS PRODUCING AROUND 0.15
INCHES OF RAIN.
AS THE LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE AND THE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST, RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST,
WITH A DRY SLOT NUDGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WRAP-AROUND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL THEN RE-ENTER THE WEST SHORTLY THEREAFTER,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE STATE. QPF
VALUES ARE STILL HIGHEST IN THE NORTH, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE
NORTHWEST EXCEEDING AN INCH, WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTH, VALUES
RANGING FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW, A RATHER POTENT
850MB JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY, WITH THE
NOSE OF THIS JET EXPANDING INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS, COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE DRY SLOT AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE LOW, WILL RESULT IN SOME STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, STRONGEST IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. SHOULD THERE BE SOME DECENT CLEARING IN THE DRY SLOT,
THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE WE COULD GET SOME OF THE STRONGER GUSTS
TO MIX DOWN, THOUGH THE STRONGEST PART OF THE JET IS DISPLACED
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE A WIND
ADVISORY OUT FOR SLOPE, BOWMAN, HETTINGER, ADAMS, GRANT, AND
SIOUX COUNTIES, TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STRONGER WINDS. SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH, ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO MONDAY,
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A RAIN-SNOW MIX WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE DAY, THOUGH IN GENERAL THIS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT COMPARED
TO THE MAIN PUSH OF THE SYSTEM TODAY. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
LOW COMBINED WITH THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA, WITH THE STRONGEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FLOWING
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LOOKING AHEAD, AN ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE WARRANTED, THOUGH WE WILL AWAIT FURTHER MODEL GUIDANCE
BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA, MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND
30 PERCENT, THOUGH WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL HOPEFULLY REMAIN RATHER LOW. IT IS CERTAINLY WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON THOUGH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN RECENT,
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF SOME RIDGING ALOFT,
AND HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S. HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE, THOUGH WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRESENT ANY CONCERNS WITH
REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER. WEDNESDAY SEES THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW, RESULTING IN SOME LOW CHANCES
FOR RAIN. THESE CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER INTO THURSDAY, AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE A BIT COOLER AGAIN, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGING TO
FOLLOW THEREAFTER, ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH HAVE SEEN A BIT OF A BREAK
BUT CHANCES WILL INCREASE HERE ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NORTH AT TIMES. PERIODIC
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT WE SHOULD START
TO SLOWLY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FEW EMBEDDED LIFR CEILINGS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION UNDER ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
MAINLY WEST TODAY AND ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ040>045.
UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...BESSON
AVIATION...ZH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page