097
FXUS63 KBIS 140029
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
729 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60 TO 95 PERCENT) FOR RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING ON
MONDAY.
- SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
TIMES, WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER ARE FORECAST
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
AT 7 PM CDT, THE CENTER OF THE STACKED LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND HARVEY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO PICK UP SOUTHEASTWARD MOMENTUM. WE DID SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE HIGHWAY 52
CORRIDOR FROM MINOT TO CARRINGTON, WHICH WERE PROLIFIC PRODUCERS OF
SMALL HAIL. ONE STORM IN WELLS COUNTY ALSO PRODUCED A COLD AIR
FUNNEL CLOUD AROUND 515 PM CDT. THE LAST STORM HAS SHIFTED INTO
GRIGGS COUNTY. THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING, HAIL, AND COLD AIR FUNNELS
HAS ENDED IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION HAS NOT BEEN AS INTENSE OR WIDESPREAD IN
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LOW AS EXPECTED. IN NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA, AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY IN FAR NORTHERN DIVIDE COUNTY, HAVE NOW SEEN TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY WINDS DOWN.
STILL SEEING A FEW SNOW OBSERVATIONS FROM MOUNTRAIL TO MCKENZIE AND
DUNN COUNTIES, BUT NEAR-SURFACE AIR AND WET-BULB TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. SNOW COULD CONTINUE TO MIX IN AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO COOL THIS EVENING, BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE BECOMING LESS
LIKELY.
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WAS MADE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THIS UPDATE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAILING THE STACKED
LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS OVER
THIS TIME PERIOD, AND CAMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT THAT THE
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS COULD BE
BOTH RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING, TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET, GRAUPEL, OR EVEN
SMALL HAIL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. SOME SNOW HAS
ALSO BEEN MIXING IN AT TIMES ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THE
PRECPITATION SHIELD WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME DRY SLOTTING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL BUT CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO FILL IN A BIT OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE, RAP
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A LARGE POCKET OF
MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 200 TO 500 J/KG, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. SIMULATED HRRR REFLECTIVITY WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GETTING
STARTED HERE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH
INSTABILITY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL AND STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO SOME GUSTIER WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY, IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, A
COUPLE OF WEAK FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOW WHERE THERE SHOULD BE SOME ENHANCED
SURFACE VORTICITY.
THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AS WE'VE SEEN SEVERAL HOURS HERE OF WEST NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BREEZY
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD RELAX EARLY IN THE EVENING AS
THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS AND MOVES EAST, BRINGING SOME MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THE WINDIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WHEN
WE MAY SEE SOME NORTHWEST WINDS CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
AND AROUND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN
TO ISSUING ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY,
BUT A FEW FACTORS LED US TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. FOR ONE, MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE, PRESSURE RISES ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK
TO NON-EXISTENT. FINALLY, WITH WIND HEADLINES IN EFFECT TODAY
AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SETUP TOMORROW, WE
COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORS AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE WILL SEE SOME MORE POCKETS OF
MUCAPE IN THE 200 TO 500 J/KG RANGE SO A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR NOW, WILL LEAVE
THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND SEE HOW
TODAY'S SETUP ENDS UP PLAYING OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
WE CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A SUNNY TUESDAY AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST
TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. WEDNESDAY WILL THEN BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WE TRANSITION BACK INTO LOW AMPLITUDE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NBM HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THEN
MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO THE NEXT ROUND
OF LOW TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY EVENING (30 TO 60 PERCENT). DEPENDING ON YOUR GUIDANCE
OF CHOICE, SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20 PERCENT) MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES START TO
MOVE IN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S NORTHWEST, TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. FRIDAY'S HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THE NBM THEN SUGGESTS ANOTHER
WARMUP THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT MEMBERSHIP SPREAD IS ALSO
RATHER LARGE THIS FAR OUT. WE WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS ALMOST
DAILY MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ANTICIPATED FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BY THE END OF THE EVENING,
ALL TERMINALS ARE LIKELY TO SEE WIND DIRECTION SETTLE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE FORECAST AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS. MOST AREAS WILL THEN SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED AT KJMS AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ040>045.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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