487
FXUS63 KBIS 141359
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
859 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS MORNING, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, STRONGEST IN FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OUT WEST CAUSING
SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
MAJORITY OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION SITS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL THIS MORNING, NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS, WITH ISOLATED
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ELSEWHERE. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS PRESENT IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT, MOSTLY FALLING AS RAIN, THOUGH SOME SNOW MAY
MIX IN HERE AND THERE AS WELL, WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. LOWS WILL
HOVER RIGHT AROUND FREEZING, FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN THE FAR
WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
ALOFT, AS THE MAIN TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK END OF THE
TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING ABOUT A SECONDARY,
WEAK WAVE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ONCE THE
MAIN WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SHORT-RANGE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
ALSO SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF ROUGHLY 500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE,
RESULTING IN THE INCLUSION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
FORECAST. NOTHING SEVERE IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, THOUGH
SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SURFACE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, WHERE WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT DUE TO THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AND MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE IN A MORE ISOLATED CAPACITY, A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY (KIDDER/STUTSMAN SOUTH TO
THE BORDER) AS WELL AS SIOUX/EMMONS COUNTIES, FROM 11 AM TO 7
PM CDT. MONDAY NIGHT WILL THEN SEE CALM WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER, WITH
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 50S/60S AND THE 60S/LOWER 70S
RESPECTIVELY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL, WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20 PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, WINDS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 MPH, WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY, BUT ONLY A
SMALL AREA IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WILL SEE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND
25 PERCENT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, SHIFTING FLOW ALOFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND PASSING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS, THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BRINGING SOME RAIN
TO THE AREA ONCE MORE. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO START LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EXITING EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP QUELL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
THOUGH STRONGER WINDS WILL STILL BE PRESENT, ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST SURFACE HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEBULOUS UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BLANKET THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LENDING TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE. WIDER NBM SPREADS ARE
PRESENT IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH GENERALLY, DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ARE WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE RATHER
DRY, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20
PERCENT RANGE. MESSY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH VERY LITTLE MODEL AGREEMENT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH THE MOST PROMINENT MVFR CEILING IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY,
AFFECTING KJMS. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA AS WELL, WITH SOME MORE ORGANIZED LIGHT RAIN IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE DAY GOES
ON, CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BEFORE INCREASING IN SPEED
DURING THE DAY TODAY, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 25
KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ036-037-045>048-050-051.
UPDATE...JOHNSON
DISCUSSION...BESSON
AVIATION...BESSON
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