006
FXUS63 KBIS 142018
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
318 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- WINDY CONDITIONS CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR 30-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN HAS BROUGHT
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A DECENT AREA OF 500 J/KG EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IS
SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIURNAL AND WILL DECREASE AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL AND GRAUPEL
FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE ALSO
ELEVATED AS PRESSURE RISES AND SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS MIXING
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, THE WIND ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE STATE.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO SOUTH DAKOTA LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. TOMORROW IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING DOWN AROUND 17 TO
20 PERCENT. LUCKILY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT
PREVENTING NEAR CRITICAL AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE 70S
AS A TRANSIENT RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE DOWN INTO WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
PUSH A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS, LEADING
TO AROUND 30-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OUT WEST. PRECIPITATION
WOULD EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS DROP BACK INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FRIDAY THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT TO SPLIT FLOW WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSING ACROSS MANITOBA AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
CUTS OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL PUT US ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE NORTHERN JET STREAM LEADING TO WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 60S THIS
WEEKEND. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PIVOT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS COULD LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE DAKOTAS, HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THIS
SYSTEM EVERY RUN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS SLOWLY INCREASES IN CEILING HEIGHT. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FORMING. AMENDMENTS WILL BE
MADE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IF THE FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A TAF
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING LEADING
TO WIDE SPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ036-037-045>048-050-051.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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