722
FXUS63 KBIS 150250
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
950 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- MEDIUM CHANCES (AROUND 30 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LOWEST
IN THE NORTHWEST.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN TRENDING WARMER
AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
UNDER A CLEAR SKY WITH NOW VERY LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES ARE
DROPPING FASTER THAN EXPECTED IN SOME PARTS OF THE STATE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FROM BEULAH-HAZEN THROUGH
GLEN ULLIN TO HETTINGER. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT WAS LOWERED TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM
DISTRIBUTION, WITH LOWER 20S NOW FORECAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. NO OTHER FORECAST CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
EVENING. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW, GIVING WAY TO A
CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR TWO, BUT A STEADY DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD PREVAIL. THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN HAS BROUGHT
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A DECENT AREA OF 500 J/KG EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IS
SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIURNAL AND WILL DECREASE AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL AND GRAUPEL
FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE ALSO
ELEVATED AS PRESSURE RISES AND SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS MIXING
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, THE WIND ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE STATE.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO SOUTH DAKOTA LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. TOMORROW IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING DOWN AROUND 17 TO
20 PERCENT. LUCKILY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT
PREVENTING NEAR CRITICAL AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE 70S
AS A TRANSIENT RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE DOWN INTO WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
PUSH A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS, LEADING
TO AROUND 30-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OUT WEST. PRECIPITATION
WOULD EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS DROP BACK INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FRIDAY THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT TO SPLIT FLOW WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSING ACROSS MANITOBA AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
CUTS OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL PUT US ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE NORTHERN JET STREAM LEADING TO WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 60S THIS
WEEKEND. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PIVOT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS COULD LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE DAKOTAS, HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THIS
SYSTEM EVERY RUN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10
KTS ON TUESDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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