911
FXUS63 KBIS 151738
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.
- MEDIUM CHANCES (AROUND 30 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN TRENDING WARMER
AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. MAIN UPDATE IS FOR AVIATION AND THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY. LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS, WITH LIGHT WINDS, AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH, MADE A FEW MINOR SKY ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE DATA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
20. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS DECREASING THE DEW
POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE DAY TODAY JUST A
BIT, AS SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BEGUN TO TREND LOWER
THAN THE NBM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVEN'T DECREASED TOO
MUCH, BUT THERE IS NOW A LARGER AREA OF VALUES AT OR JUST BELOW
20 PERCENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IS THE THEME FOR THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING QUITE A BIT, SO WE'VE
OPTED FOR A LOWER TEMPERATURE BLEND THAN THE NBM FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO CAPTURE THE ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING
THIS MORNING. ALOFT, WE SIT BETWEEN A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A
RIDGE TO OUR WEST, THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY TODAY, BRINGING ABOUT SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY, MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING
INTO THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL, THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY LIGHT, DULLING
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THE AXIS OF THE THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY,
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST, WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL,
WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN. WINDS
IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY THOUGH,
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
BE MARGINAL AT BEST THOUGH.
AS DEEP TROUGHING DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA, RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF SOME RAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. QPF VALUES GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 0.05 TO 0.25 INCHES. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL ALSO HELP TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR OUR
ENTIRE AREA. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN COOL, AS A MESSY UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TAKES OVER, TEMPERATURES MOSTLY INFLUENCED BY A DEEP
TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SUBTLE RIDGING EMBEDDED IN A
SPLIT-FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO TAKE OVER SATURDAY ONWARDS,
RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES (MID 50S TO LOWER 60S)
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWEST ON
SATURDAY, IN THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE OUT WEST, THOUGH WIND
SPEEDS DON'T APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
RESOLVING THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME SIGNS WE MAY SEE OUR NEXT ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WESTERN
SITES FROM ABOUT KXWA TO KDIK COULD SEE A WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF
A WESTERLY WIND MID TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, MAINLY FROM KMOT TO KBIS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...BESSON
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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