531
FXUS63 KBIS 160233
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME 70S IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
- AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN MEDIUM CHANCES (AROUND 30 TO 70
PERCENT) FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY.
- BREEZY WINDS FOUND AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHEST WINDS COMING ON THURSDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN TRENDING WARMER
AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
A QUIET EVENING CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
IT LOOKS TO BE A QUIET EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. JUST
BLENDED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST AND
UPDATED SKY COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT USING THE LATEST NBM DATA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
MAINLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MAY INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. THROUGH
THIS EVENING, LOW RH VALUES COULD BE FOUND ALTHOUGH WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH SUSTAINED, LIMITING
THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WEDNESDAY, THE
MENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND IT WILL BE
A COLD FRONT, WHILE AHEAD OF IT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN THIS WARMER SECTOR RH VALUES
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ALSO BE
FOUND IN THESE DRY AREAS, HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS LOOK TO BE
MORE IN EASTERN ND WHERE RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 25%. WITH THE
LOWEST RH AND THE HIGHER WINDS NOT QUITE LINING UP, WILL LIMIT
THE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MESSAGING.
IF SOME DRYER AIR AND/OR HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE HAD, THEN
PERHAPS AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, THE NORTHWEST WILL SEE A SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A FRONT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WARMER AIR COULD BRING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR.
PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT IS ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND DRY AIR AND
THE SURFACE COULD ALSO IMPACT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP, SOME GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN INVERTED V SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S, EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT 50S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, COLD FRONT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
RAIN, AND POSSIBLY SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NBM CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE SNOW ARE 20 TO 50% IN THE SOUTHWEST, AND UP TO
20% FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW IN THIS SAME AREA. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THURSDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. A BROAD TROUGH THEN LINGERS
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY, CONTINUING COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, BREEZY WINDS, AND PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES ON
FRIDAY ARE NOT AS HIGH, ALTHOUGH DO PEAK AT ROUND 10% FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE
FOUND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST
WILL THEN BE FOUND THIS WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BRING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. PERHAPS
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN AS A RESULT WITH THESE DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. CLUSTERS INDICATE A TROUGH PATTERN COULD
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH ALSO INDICATE THIS COULD RESULT
IN SOME SPLIT WAVE FEATURES. NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS INDICATING
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE WITH THIS PATTERN. NBM
ALSO BRINGS CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY WITH THIS PATTERN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR
ANY SPECIFIC SITE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN NORTH ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ZH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page