855
FXUS63 KBIS 160905
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY TODAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (30 TO 80 PERCENT) FOR RAIN TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TONIGHT. LOW CHANCES (20 PERCENT) FOR RAIN NORTHWEST.
- RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
- BREEZY TO WINDY AND COLDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THURSDAY.
- TRENDING WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
CURRENTLY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER SASKATCHEWAN
INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS WAS PRODUCING A MODERATE SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, A CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
CANADA AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH
SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WAS
LOCATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE BASE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC FLOW.
TODAY, AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST, IT'S ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST, GATHERING ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN
MONTANA, AND PUSHING THEM THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. A SURFACE LOW WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON
WITH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ND AND STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS PUTS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO A FAVORED
POSITION FOR WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
TODAY. WE UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE NBM WITH THE NBM50 OVER THE
WARM SECTOR FOR HIGHS TODAY, WHILE MOST AREAS WERE STRAIGHT NBM.
THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON
THE INCREASE TODAY, PERHAPS TEMPERING THE HIGHS A BIT. WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES, AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DROP TO AROUND 19 TO
25 PERCENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST AN SOUTH
CENTRAL. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY (SOUTHEAST WINDS) AND
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA (NORTHWEST WINDS). THE AREA OF LOWEST
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS AS THEY
TRANSITION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER THE
AREAS OF LOWEST HUMIDITIES TO KEEP NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OUT OF THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST. HOWEVER,
THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOUGH THROUGH THE
DAY.
TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY MID TO LATE
THIS EVENING. THIS IS SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED YESTERDAY.
THE NBM SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP. IT'S NOT TOO BAD AT
THIS TIME BUT IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE, WE MAY NEED TO SLOW
DOWN THE INTRODUCTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. THE SLOWER
TIMING ALSO ELIMINATES THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS EVENING LOOKS TO BE
QUITE LOW, ALTHOUGH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A
PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR SOME BANDED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THE
FG FORCING IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE, WITH THE FG FORCING AT 70H
STRONGEST OVER SOUTHWEST ND, WHILE THE 85H FORCING IS SHIFTED A
BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST, INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND. THERE IS ALSO A
BIT OF NEGATIVE EPV AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE FG FORCING. WHAT IS LACKING THOUGH IS STRONG
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS A BIT LACKING. THE NBM QPF HAS BACKED OFF FROM
YESTERDAY, AND ALSO SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH. CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST
QPF IS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 HUNDREDTHS EXTENDING EAST
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ANOTHER QUESTION FOR
BANDED SNOW WILL BE IF IT'S COLD ENOUGH. DETERMINISTICALLY, THE
NAM LOOKS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR, WHICH IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE, WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SLOWER TO BRING
COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE MINOR, AND WITH THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS, WELCOME. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY
SURFACES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
IF WE HAPPEN TO GET A LITTLE STRONGER FORCING RESULTING IN SOME
DYNAMIC COOLING LINING UP IN AN AREA OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWEST WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION. A LOT OF THIS WOULD LIKELY MELT THOUGH, SO
IMPACTS REMAIN LOW.
IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THURSDAY
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE
AS WINDY, BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S BOTH DAYS, BUT WITH A FEW LOWER 50S ON
THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S BOTH NIGHTS, WITH SOME
UPPER TEENS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AFTER A COLD START SATURDAY, WE DO SEE A WARMING TREND
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY AND THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD LLWS WILL IMPACT KDIK, KMOT AND KBIS.
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
AND DAYTIME. LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE WEST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL ALSO ENTER THE FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
INSTABILITY, AT THIS TIME UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH FOR A MENTION
OF THUNDER AT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BEGIN THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, WINDS
GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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