282
FXUS63 KBIS 161140
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY TODAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (30 TO 80 PERCENT) FOR RAIN TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TONIGHT. LOW CHANCES (20 PERCENT) FOR RAIN NORTHWEST.
- RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
- BREEZY TO WINDY AND COLDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THURSDAY.
- TRENDING WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
SOME OF THE CAMS ARE DEPICTING SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY. THE NBM DID PRODUCE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER TODAY AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. CONSIDERED EXTENDING THEM DOWN A BIT AND JUST DOING
A BLANKET SLIGHT CHANCE POP NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR BUT
THINK THE PROBABILITY OF ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE IS QUITE
LOW. WILL PASS THIS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFT AND THEY CAN ADJUST
IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
CURRENTLY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER SASKATCHEWAN
INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS WAS PRODUCING A MODERATE SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, A CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
CANADA AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH
SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WAS
LOCATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE BASE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC FLOW.
TODAY, AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST, IT'S ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST, GATHERING ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN
MONTANA, AND PUSHING THEM THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. A SURFACE LOW WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON
WITH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ND AND STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS PUTS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO A FAVORED
POSITION FOR WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
TODAY. WE UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE NBM WITH THE NBM50 OVER THE
WARM SECTOR FOR HIGHS TODAY, WHILE MOST AREAS WERE STRAIGHT NBM.
THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON
THE INCREASE TODAY, PERHAPS TEMPERING THE HIGHS A BIT. WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES, AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DROP TO AROUND 19 TO
25 PERCENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST AN SOUTH
CENTRAL. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY (SOUTHEAST WINDS) AND
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA (NORTHWEST WINDS). THE AREA OF LOWEST
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS AS THEY
TRANSITION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER THE
AREAS OF LOWEST HUMIDITIES TO KEEP NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OUT OF THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST. HOWEVER,
THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOUGH THROUGH THE
DAY.
TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY MID TO LATE
THIS EVENING. THIS IS SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED YESTERDAY.
THE NBM SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP. IT'S NOT TOO BAD AT
THIS TIME BUT IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE, WE MAY NEED TO SLOW
DOWN THE INTRODUCTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. THE SLOWER
TIMING ALSO ELIMINATES THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS EVENING LOOKS TO BE
QUITE LOW, ALTHOUGH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A
PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR SOME BANDED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THE
FG FORCING IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE, WITH THE FG FORCING AT 70H
STRONGEST OVER SOUTHWEST ND, WHILE THE 85H FORCING IS SHIFTED A
BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST, INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND. THERE IS ALSO A
BIT OF NEGATIVE EPV AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE FG FORCING. WHAT IS LACKING THOUGH IS STRONG
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS A BIT LACKING. THE NBM QPF HAS BACKED OFF FROM
YESTERDAY, AND ALSO SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH. CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST
QPF IS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 HUNDREDTHS EXTENDING EAST
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ANOTHER QUESTION FOR
BANDED SNOW WILL BE IF IT'S COLD ENOUGH. DETERMINISTICALLY, THE
NAM LOOKS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR, WHICH IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE, WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SLOWER TO BRING
COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE MINOR, AND WITH THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS, WELCOME. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY
SURFACES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
IF WE HAPPEN TO GET A LITTLE STRONGER FORCING RESULTING IN SOME
DYNAMIC COOLING LINING UP IN AN AREA OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWEST WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION. A LOT OF THIS WOULD LIKELY MELT THOUGH, SO
IMPACTS REMAIN LOW.
IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THURSDAY
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE
AS WINDY, BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S BOTH DAYS, BUT WITH A FEW LOWER 50S ON
THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S BOTH NIGHTS, WITH SOME
UPPER TEENS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AFTER A COLD START SATURDAY, WE DO SEE A WARMING TREND
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY AND THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
A COLD FRONT JUST PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ATTIM WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXCEPT FOR A PASSING SPRINKLE, THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LATE TONIGHT AN AREA OF
RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BROUGHT A VCSH INTO KDIK THIS EVENING AND
LIGHT RAIN AFTER AROUND 08 UTC WITH MVFR CEILINGS. AT KBIS
INTRODUCED A PROB30 AT 09 UTC WITH LOW VFR CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS AND NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 30 KNOTS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, DIMINISHING AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD, BEFORE DROPPING OFF.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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