931
FXUS63 KBIS 161850
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
150 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL.
- RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.
- WINDY AND COLDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THURSDAY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.
- TRENDING WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA,
WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF, AND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WEST. WITH THE WARM FRONT,
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH, AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS ARE
TURNING TO THE NORTH. ALOFT, A MEDIUM SIZED POSITIVE TILED
TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL GO CALM AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER, THEN WILL BE
A LITTLE BREEZY. FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
WILL STILL BE IN THE 70S. IN THE NORTHWEST, HIGHS STAY IN THE
50S, AS THEY ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALREADY.
WITH THIS COLD FRONT TONIGHT, PRECIPITATION, MAINLY AS RAIN,
WILL FALL. THERE IS VERY STRONG 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO DEVIL'S LAKE. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF
WILL FALL. CLOUD BASES WILL START AROUND 10KFT WHICH MAY BE HARD
FOR THE RAIN DROPS TO NOT EVAPORATE, SO QPF COULD END UP
LIGHTER. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER. WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS, THIS AREA COULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY, IT ALREADY HAS
SINCE THIS MORNING. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT, COOLER AIR
WILL MAKE THE RAIN TURN TO SNOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST HAS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF LESS THAN AN INCH. THE GEFS AND NBM PLUMES VARY
FOR QPF TONIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL LIKELY
BE BELOW 0.25 INCHES. THE RAIN/SNOW WILL TAPPER OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE EAST.
FRIDAY ANOTHER SMALL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
COOLER WITH THIS. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 40S. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
SATURDAY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE
WINDS WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS. THIS WILL CREATE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET OTHERWISE, UNDER A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THEN A TROUGH WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MULTIPLE LOWS MOVE IN, WE WILL HAVE A
MEDIUM CHANCE (40%) OF RAIN THESE DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
VFR CIGS AND VIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE CURRENTLY, TURNING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH, TO THE NORTH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WHOLE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL GUST AROUND 20KTS. RAIN SHOWERS, MIXING WITH SNOW,
WILL MOVING IN AFTER 05Z THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...SMITH
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