493
FXUS63 KBIS 170300
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1000 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL.
- RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.
- WINDY AND COLDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THURSDAY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.
- TRENDING WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING, BROADLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT TRAWLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO HAVE ALSO
BEEN OBSERVED WITH A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AS THEY ROLL OVER A
POCKET OF 100-200 J/KG MLCAPE. THESE SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDER
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. FOR THIS UPDATE, HAVE ADDED POPS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, NORTH WINDS HAVE
REMAINED GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY FROM 15 TO 20
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING, AND WITH IT AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRON DRAPED
OVER A ROUGH NNE-SSW AXIS. WITH IT, INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
WEAK REFLECTIVITIES CAN BE FOUND OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. WITH THESE CLOUDS WELL ELEVATED ABOUT 19000FT, AND WITH
A SIGNIFICANTLY DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE, LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE REFLECTIVITIES HAVE OR ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT, WINDS
ARE REORIENTING FROM THE SOUTH TO BECOME OUT OF THE NORTH.
FURTHER BEHIND THIS FRONT, WELL INTO EASTERN MONTANA,
PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO BE REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET AT THE
TIME OF THIS UPDATE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE
PERFORMED, AS IT REMAINS BROADLY ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH
DAKOTA, WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF, AND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WEST. WITH THE WARM
FRONT, WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH, AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS
ARE TURNING TO THE NORTH. ALOFT, A MEDIUM SIZED POSITIVE TILED
TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL GO CALM AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER, THEN WILL BE A
LITTLE BREEZY. FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILL
STILL BE IN THE 70S. IN THE NORTHWEST, HIGHS STAY IN THE 50S, AS
THEY ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALREADY.
WITH THIS COLD FRONT TONIGHT, PRECIPITATION, MAINLY AS RAIN,
WILL FALL. THERE IS VERY STRONG 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO DEVIL'S LAKE. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF
WILL FALL. CLOUD BASES WILL START AROUND 10KFT WHICH MAY BE HARD
FOR THE RAIN DROPS TO NOT EVAPORATE, SO QPF COULD END UP
LIGHTER. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER. WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS, THIS AREA COULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY, IT ALREADY HAS
SINCE THIS MORNING. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT, COOLER AIR
WILL MAKE THE RAIN TURN TO SNOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST HAS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF LESS THAN AN INCH. THE GEFS AND NBM PLUMES VARY
FOR QPF TONIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL LIKELY
BE BELOW 0.25 INCHES. THE RAIN/SNOW WILL TAPPER OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE EAST.
FRIDAY ANOTHER SMALL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE EVEN COOLER WITH THIS. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 40S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE 50S AND
60S. SATURDAY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE WINDS WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS. THIS WILL CREATE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET OTHERWISE, UNDER A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THEN A TROUGH WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MULTIPLE LOWS MOVE IN, WE WILL HAVE A
MEDIUM CHANCE (40%) OF RAIN THESE DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE FOUND AT ALL TERMINALS TO BEGIN
00Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO REORGANIZED OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, MOVING IN AROUND 05Z INTO THE
SOUTHWEST BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL MAINLY
FALL AS RAIN, SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MIX IN DURING THE COOLEST
PERIOD OF THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THIS HIGHEST CHANCES FOUND
ACROSS THE SOUTH, MENTIONS OF -RA HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KDIK, KBIS, AND KJMS. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS TOO LOW AT KXWA AND KMOT TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTIONS WITH THIS UPDATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WHEN RAIN IS FALLING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ADAM
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...ADAM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page