992
FXUS63 KBIS 170836
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
336 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL.
- RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.
- WINDY AND COLDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THURSDAY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.
- TRENDING WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
CURRENTLY, LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AN UPPER LOW WAS DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A FEW ADDITIONAL IMPULSES WERE
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN MANITOBA LOW.
TODAY, THE CANADIAN LOW AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL
UNDERGO INCREASED SHEAR AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO WESTERN CANADA. THIS
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
OUR LOCAL AREA TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
THE ONGOING AND EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
UNDER PERFORM, MOSTLY DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE. LAST NIGHT WE
MENTIONED THE STRONG FG FORCING THAT WAS INDICATED OVER
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ND. THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE CASE. IN
FACT CURRENTLY AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER EMMONS
COUNTY, WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG 850MB FG FORCING AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS WEAK
ELEVATED CONVECTION LINGER A WHILE LONGER AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST, NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. BACK OVER SOUTHWEST
ND, STRONG 700MB FG FORCING IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. LATEST OB FROM BAKER MT IS INDICATING LIGHT RAIN
AND THE LATEST BOWMAN RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING A NICE BAND OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES FROM SOUTHWEST OF BAKER, NORTHEAST TOWARDS
FAIRFIELD AND KILLDEER. ADDITIONAL BANDS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THIS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE,
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. OVERALL, THE QPF TREND
CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH THE LATEST QPF SHOWING UP TO AROUND
15 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LESSER AMOUNTS
(GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH) EXTENDING EAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL ND. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT
ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. IN GENERAL, PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ND
THIS MORNING (ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL FG FORCING) AND
ANOTHER AREA FROM THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY (ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL FG FORCING). WITH A
LACK OF AN ENTIRE COLUMN OF MOISTURE NEITHER IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS (AS NOTED ABOVE). BY THIS
AFTERNOON, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY
WIND.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA, THERE LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. CAMS ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST NBM IS NOT DOING A GOOD
JOB PICKING THIS UP DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD VARIABILITY OF THE
CAMS WITH ONLY LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT QPF. WILL CARRY A
MENTION OF ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DUE TO
THE LIGHT NATURE AND THE LOW PREDICTABILITY IN TIMING/PLACEMENT
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE WEEKEND SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 20S, WE WARM INTO THE 50S, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER, WITH MAINLY 60 DEGREE
READINGS EXPECTED, AND JUST A LITTLE MORE WIND.
A SERIES OF IMPULSES TRACKING THROUGH A MEAN NORTHWEST U.S.
TROUGH WILL BRING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK, WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
IN SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 UTC THU. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERHAPS A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN
THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, AND ALSO OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY, INCLUDING KJMS. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND TODAY GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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