664
FXUS63 KBIS 171436
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY SOUTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL.
- RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
- WINDY AND COLDER TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON TODAY IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.
- TRENDING WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
MAIN BAND OF RADAR REFLECTIVITY EXTENDS FROM KIDDER COUNTY
THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, IN LINE WITH AN AXIS OF 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS SEEN VIA SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. CEILINGS HAVE
LOWERED ENOUGH THAT WE ARE GETTING SOME RAIN TO MAKE IT TO THE
SURFACE, WITH GENERALLY A FEW HUNDRETHS AN HOUR BEING OBSERVED
AT VARIOUS NDAWN STATIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THROUGH MID-MORNING
WE WERE SEEING JUST A BIT OF SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, AND
BAKER MT ASOS HAD BEEN REPORTING 3 MILES OF VISIBILITY AND LIGHT
SNOW, ALTHOUGH THAT HAS STOPPED AS 1430 UTC. UPDATED POPS TO
BETTER MATCH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPS WERE MADE MOSTLY FOR
AVIATION PURPOSES. SNOW WAS NOTED ON NDDOT WEBCAMS IN FAR
SOUTHWEST ND EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT, ANY
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AT BEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
CURRENTLY, LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AN UPPER LOW WAS DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A FEW ADDITIONAL IMPULSES WERE
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN MANITOBA LOW.
TODAY, THE CANADIAN LOW AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL
UNDERGO INCREASED SHEAR AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO WESTERN CANADA. THIS
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
OUR LOCAL AREA TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
THE ONGOING AND EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
UNDER PERFORM, MOSTLY DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE. LAST NIGHT WE
MENTIONED THE STRONG FG FORCING THAT WAS INDICATED OVER
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ND. THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE CASE. IN
FACT CURRENTLY AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER EMMONS
COUNTY, WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG 850MB FG FORCING AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS WEAK
ELEVATED CONVECTION LINGER A WHILE LONGER AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST, NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. BACK OVER SOUTHWEST
ND, STRONG 700MB FG FORCING IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. LATEST OB FROM BAKER MT IS INDICATING LIGHT RAIN
AND THE LATEST BOWMAN RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING A NICE BAND OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES FROM SOUTHWEST OF BAKER, NORTHEAST TOWARDS
FAIRFIELD AND KILLDEER. ADDITIONAL BANDS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THIS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE,
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. OVERALL, THE QPF TREND
CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH THE LATEST QPF SHOWING UP TO AROUND
15 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LESSER AMOUNTS
(GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH) EXTENDING EAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL ND. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT
ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. IN GENERAL, PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ND
THIS MORNING (ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL FG FORCING) AND
ANOTHER AREA FROM THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY (ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL FG FORCING). WITH A
LACK OF AN ENTIRE COLUMN OF MOISTURE NEITHER IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS (AS NOTED ABOVE). BY THIS
AFTERNOON, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY
WIND.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA, THERE LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. CAMS ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST NBM IS NOT DOING A GOOD
JOB PICKING THIS UP DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD VARIABILITY OF THE
CAMS WITH ONLY LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT QPF. WILL CARRY A
MENTION OF ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DUE TO
THE LIGHT NATURE AND THE LOW PREDICTABILITY IN TIMING/PLACEMENT
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE WEEKEND SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 20S, WE WARM INTO THE 50S, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER, WITH MAINLY 60 DEGREE
READINGS EXPECTED, AND JUST A LITTLE MORE WIND.
A SERIES OF IMPULSES TRACKING THROUGH A MEAN NORTHWEST U.S.
TROUGH WILL BRING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK, WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN (WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING) WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. IT'S POSSIBLE THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS EARLY THIS
EVENING. LATE TONIGHT LOWER CEILINGS AND ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND COULD IMPACT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KMOT AND KXWA TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. FOR NOW KEPT THESE SITES ABOVE MVFR CEILINGS. ANY
PRECIP WOULD BE TO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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