423
FXUS63 KBIS 040536
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES MAY RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. RAIN
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
- DRY WEATHER, WITH BREEZY WINDS AT TIMES, ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES LATE THIS EVENING, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSISTENT AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS THE
AREA. FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY. NO
CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A PLEASANT SATURDAY EVENING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH NOT A
CLOUD IN THE SKY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
OCCASIONALLY SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH.
FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT NO BIG CHANGES
NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP CLEAR AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOW RH THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10
MPH WILL BE JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY, LEAVING A STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. NBM WINDS ARE JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE ARE
DECENT WINDS ALOFT, ALTHOUGH PRESSURE FALLS AND LACK OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION COULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY. HREF AND
ECMWF EFI ALSO SHOWING WINDS MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY
LEVELS. THUS HELD OFF ON ANY WIND PRODUCTS FOR NOW. THE WARM AIR
IN THE 70S AND 80S, COMBINED WITH LINGERING DRY AIR AND RH IN
THE TEENS AND 20S, AND WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH COULD BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOR NOW CONTINUED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH. BREEZY WINDS MAY THEN LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ON
SUNDAY. OF INTEREST IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A ROBUST
LOW LEVEL JET SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST. PERHAPS A STRONG
WIND GUST IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. CURRENT TIMING
IS SUCH THAT WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
FOR MONDAY, EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THERE
IS SOME MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, YET THE BEST
SHEAR LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THESE TWO
PARAMETERS CAN BETTER ALIGN THEN PERHAPS A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MESSAGE SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT, AND SPC HAS MAINTAINED A
GENERAL RISK FOR OUR AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE SOME STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. NBM IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH SOME
HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE
ECMWF EFI VALUES ARE ELEVATED. SOME LINGER SHOWERS MAY BE FOUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S. POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN FOUND
TUESDAY, WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS 60S IN THE
EAST. TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SEES A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES COULD BE FOUND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOW IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.
RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN THE WESTERN FOR LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.
DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THIS RIDGE WE COULD SEE MORE OF THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD OR ZONAL FLOW FROM THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE.
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S SHOULD RETURN AS A RESULT OF
EITHER. SOME BREEZY WINDS MAY ALSO BE FOUND. FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES, ALTHOUGH
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BECOME WINDY DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND GENERALLY IN
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
AROUND 10 MPH. THUS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE FOUND THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT. A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND MAY ALSO
BE FOUND, WITH RH VALUES REBOUNDING TO 60 TO 80 PERCENT.
ON SUNDAY WINDS BECOME NOTABLY STRONGER, 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE A TAD BIT HIGHER, BUT
STILL IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S WHICH MEETS CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITION CRITERIA FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF
OUR AREA EXCEPT DICKEY AND LAMOURE COUNTIES WHERE WINDS LOOK TO
BE A TAD BIT LOWER, BUT WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THAT AREA. WITH THIS ALL SAID, IT IS NOTED THAT GRASSES ARE
STARTING TO GREEN UP, BUT THIS HAS NOT PROGRESSED ENOUGH TO
COUNTER THE REMAINING TALL DEAD GRASSES FROM LAST SEASON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>047-050.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...TELKEN
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN
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