036
FXUS63 KBIS 041450
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
950 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
DETAILS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, WITH BREEZY WINDS AT TIMES, ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
LITTLE UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
60S RIGHT NOW, ON THEIR WAY TO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S TODAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY,
ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY ARE FORECAST TO BE SUB ADVISORY. WINDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL STILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY, A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THERMAL RIDGE WILL CENTER OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WHILE THE
STATE BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WARM CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES, ALONG WITH DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. AS THE LOW
WORKS INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BEGIN
ENCROACHING INTO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD, SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GENERALLY SPEAKING, PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, OR LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. HOWEVER,
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
CURRENTLY, THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ND.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST, OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THAT SAID, PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH A COOLING TREND
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST TO RETURN TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 70S AND LOW 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS.
TRANSITORY LLWS IS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ND LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY BECOMING STRONG AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY, BUT STILL FROM AROUND 15 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF
THE STATE, AND UP TO 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THIS MEETS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF
WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL ND, EXCEPT DICKEY AND LAMOURE COUNTIES.
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR
THOSE TWO COUNTIES, HOWEVER. WITH THAT ALL SAID, IT IS NOTED
THAT GRASSES ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP, BUT THIS HAS NOT
PROGRESSED ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE REMAINING TALL DEAD GRASSES
FROM LAST SEASON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>047-050.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
FIRE WEATHER...TELKEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page