274
FXUS63 KBIS 041752
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1252 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
DETAILS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, WITH BREEZY WINDS AT TIMES, ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CWA. LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES REMAIN
OUT OF THE RED FLAG WARNING, ALTHOUGH WILL SEE NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR MORE DETAILS, SEE THE
UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. SOME SITES HAVE ALREADY
HIT 80 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THIS EARLY HEATING. WINDS ARE ALSO STARTING
TO INCREASE. CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IS STILL LOW,
ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MAY HIT CRITERIA AT TIMES. OVERALL LITTLE
NEEDING UPDATING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
LITTLE UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
60S RIGHT NOW, ON THEIR WAY TO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S TODAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY,
ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY ARE FORECAST TO BE SUB ADVISORY. WINDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL STILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY, A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THERMAL RIDGE WILL CENTER OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WHILE THE
STATE BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WARM CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES, ALONG WITH DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. AS THE LOW
WORKS INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BEGIN
ENCROACHING INTO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD, SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GENERALLY SPEAKING, PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, OR LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. HOWEVER,
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
CURRENTLY, THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ND.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST, OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THAT SAID, PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH A COOLING TREND
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST TO RETURN TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 70S AND LOW 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TODAY EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. TONIGHT, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY LINGER. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALSO BE FOUND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUDS STILL AT VFR LEVELS. CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION MENTION. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TONIGHT, MAINLY FROM KDIK TO KBIS TO
KMOT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHCENTRAL MONDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT COULD CHANGE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BECOME BREEZY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS INCLUDING KXWA ON MONDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT MAY ALSO BRING LOW VFR TO PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WAS
ALSO INCLUDED IN THE KXWA TAF. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINING SITES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CWA. LAMOURE AND
DICKEY COUNTIES REMAIN AT NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR TODAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FUELS AS A GREENUP IS MORE
APPARENT HERE, YET UNCERTAIN IF THAT IS ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
REMAINING TALL DEAD GRASSES FROM LAST SEASON. SOUTH WINDS UP TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE STILL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. THUS ANYWHERE IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING COULD SEE RAPID GROWTH AND SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. THE MORE
CONCERNING AREAS WITHIN THE RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE IN
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, GENERALLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THESE AREAS SEE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVER 8 C/KM OVERLAP WITH THE STRONGER 850 MB LEVEL WINDS
ALOFT. FOR THOSE INTERESTED, MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS NOW
COVERED UNDER GOES EAST 19 MESO SECTOR 1 TO HELP MONITOR FOR
HOT SPOTS USING SATELLITE DATA.
TONIGHT, A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH RH RECOVERIES 50 TO 80 PERCENT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY DELAY ACROSS THE EAST, AND WARM
TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE
20S. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST
ON MONDAY, WHILE WINDS BECOME NORTH AND BREEZY ACROSS THE WEST.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>047-050.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...TELKEN
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