613
FXUS63 KBIS 050919
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
419 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.
- WARM AND BREEZY FOR MOST AREAS TODAY. COOLER IN THE WEST WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL.
- COOLER ON TUESDAY, WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THEN MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PRESENTLY SIT FROM MANITOBA THROUGH WESTERN ND AND INTO WYOMING,
AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE ELONGATED LOW, A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF ND. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL DROP INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
ND, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, RESULTING IN NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, COOLER HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY IN FAR WESTERN ND, ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
THE WEST THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT, BUT AS OBSERVED WITHIN THE PAST FEW
HOURS, EMBEDDED POCKETS OF UNANALYZED INSTABILITY ARE ALLOWING
THE OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD TODAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
EVENING. CAMS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN A FAIRLY NARROW
(APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES WIDE) LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
WITH A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FROM SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL ND. CURRENTLY, THE BEST INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST SHEAR, SO SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS UNLIKELY,
THOUGH A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY, BUT ONCE THEY CLEAR OUT, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO FINISH OUT THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE
NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
FOR REFERENCE, BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
LLWS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL
ND THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
WESTERN ND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE TERMINAL MOST LIKELY IMPACTED
WOULD BE KXWA. AND EVEN THEN, IMPACTS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR WITH ANY OF THESE SHOWERS.
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE SHOWERS,
HOWEVER. OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT, THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY,
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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