263
FXUS63 KBIS 060919
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
419 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY, AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY FOR COUNTIES ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
- COOLER TODAY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE
NORTH. RESIDUAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH
PINPOINTING THEIR EXACT LOCATION AT ANY POINT IN TIME WILL BE
DIFFICULT. THEREFORE, WENT WITH A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTER.
BEYOND TODAY, A RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGING PATTERN WILL PARTIALLY
FLATTEN AND REGENERATE MULTIPLE TIMES THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, LATER
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS WHEN THE STRONGEST
THERMAL RIDGE IS FAVORED TO CENTER OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THE
EFIS MAXT IS ESPECIALLY ANOMALOUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT
NBM FORECAST PUTS WIDESPREAD MID 80S TO AROUND 90 THOSE DAYS,
BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF MORE LOCATIONS REACH THE LOW 90S
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES BEYOND TODAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THAT SAID, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY RIDE THE RIDGE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PRODUCING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES AS
WELL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST HOUR. THESE SHOWERS, ALONG WITH AN
OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER, REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER, MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO HAVE
ENDED AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE
AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER PARTS OF
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT OVERALL, EXPECT MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO
ENCROACH INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND TONIGHT. THESE ARE FAVORED TO
STAY SOUTH OF KDIK, THOUGH IT WOULDN'T BE TOTALLY SURPRISING
EITHER IF THEY AT LEAST BRIEFLY REACH THE TERMINAL.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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