336
FXUS63 KBIS 061807
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
107 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY, AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY FOR COUNTIES ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
- COOLER TODAY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON AND OFF ACROSS THE AREA. THE
LATEST NBM DATA WAS LOADED IN THE FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED. THERE ARE A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT MIGHT MOVE
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL. THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ARE NOT
EXPECTED, THOUGH LOW AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ARE BEING ANALYZED
IN CENTRAL ND, SO AN ISOLATED STRIKE OF LIGHTNING ISN'T AN
IMPOSSIBILITY. MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE ALSO PRESENT IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST ALONG THE ND/MT BORDER AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE TO FEW HOURS. UPDATED POPS BASED ON
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE
NORTH. RESIDUAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH
PINPOINTING THEIR EXACT LOCATION AT ANY POINT IN TIME WILL BE
DIFFICULT. THEREFORE, WENT WITH A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTER.
BEYOND TODAY, A RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGING PATTERN WILL PARTIALLY
FLATTEN AND REGENERATE MULTIPLE TIMES THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, LATER
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS WHEN THE STRONGEST
THERMAL RIDGE IS FAVORED TO CENTER OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THE
EFIS MAXT IS ESPECIALLY ANOMALOUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT
NBM FORECAST PUTS WIDESPREAD MID 80S TO AROUND 90 THOSE DAYS,
BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF MORE LOCATIONS REACH THE LOW 90S
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES BEYOND TODAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THAT SAID, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY RIDE THE RIDGE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PRODUCING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES AS
WELL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CIGS AND VIS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON. CIGS IN THE WEST AND NORTH WILL ERODE LATER THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHEAST 20 TO 30KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...SMITH
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