486
FXUS63 KBIS 062321
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL WEDNESDAY, AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS IN THE AREA HAVE FALLEN APART, WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NOW COVERING MOST OF THE AREA. NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A WEAK OMEGA-RIDGING PATTERN IS IN PLACE TODAY WITH RIDGE
RIDING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE STATE. SLIGHTLY HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT IS SITTING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO-
THIRDS OF THE STATE. THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE BREEZY AND
WARM.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES. THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
THE FAR WEST AND SOUTH WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PROGGED TO STICK AROUND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT, WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN TO
THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THIS UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT ZONAL
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND NEAR RECORD BREAKING
POTENTIALLY WITH HIGHS PROGGED TO BE IN THE 90S. STARTING
MONDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FROM A LOW OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. AS WE KNOW, SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE SUMMER USUALLY CREATES
STORMS. LONG TERM MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE FORECASTS ARE
HIGHLIGHTING DAY 7 THROUGH 9 FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LAST ANOTHER SEVERAL DAYS AFTER.
FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS WEEK, AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE IN PLACE ALL WEEK, ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS. ON A POSITIVE
NOTE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT IN THE SAME AREA
AS THE HIGHEST FIRE CONCERNS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CUMULUS IN THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE EVENING.
INITIALLY BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO THE
NIGHT. NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL TAKE OVER IN THE WEST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...BESSON
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...BESSON
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