889
FXUS63 KBIS 070856
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
356 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST TODAY. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY WITH NEAR-CRITICAL
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODICALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS MOSTLY DRY AND
PERIODICALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. FOR TODAY, A RIDGE CONTINUES CENTERING OVER THE
PLAINS STATES, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT, EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
THAT SAID, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WESTERN ND WILL
BRING BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS, POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A LITTLE
DOWNSLOPING, OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. WITH A LITTLE DEEPER
MIXING, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IN
THE NORTHWEST. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TODAY WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS
COINCIDE WITH DRIER AIR.
SURFACE FLOW THURSDAY BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, EXPECT FURTHER
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY ALONG THE MISSOURI COTEAU. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ARE ON TAP. COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH, THIS
WILL LEAD TO NEAR-CRITCAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL.
A RIDGE RIDER THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY EVENING. THE RESULTING PARTIAL
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S, THOUGH READINGS APPROACHING 80
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I94. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS FRIDAY SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE THERMAL RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO CENTER OVER THE PLAINS STATES. ALONG WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH THE EFI OFF THE CHARTS FOR SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. CURRENT NBM HIGHS ARE FORECAST INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S, THE LATTER OF WHICH ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
RECORD TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BEYOND MONDAY OR
TUESDAY, A COOLING TREND AND POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS
FAVORED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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