314
FXUS63 KBIS 071834
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
134 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST TODAY. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY WITH NEAR-
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL (LOW HUMIDITY, BREEZY SOUTH WINDS, POSSIBLE DRY
THUNDERSTORMS).
- MAINLY DRY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODICALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE
FOR SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER THROUGH NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WE TRANSITION TO AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. SEE BELOW FOR FURTHER
DISCUSSION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS VALID FOR TODAY. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER STILL EXPECTED NORTHWEST, WHERE RH VALUES IN THE LOW/MID
20S WILL COINCIDE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT NEAR 20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN ON
THURSDAY NORTH CENTRAL, WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES, CONTINUED
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
(DRY T-STORMS WITH LITTLE MOISTURE). WILL DIG DEEPER INTO THAT
PERIOD AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES NORTH CENTRAL MAY BE
WARRANTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY THIS MORNING WITH MOST
LOCATIONS HAVING DROPPED INTO THE 30S, THOUGH SOME REMAIN
IN THE LOW 40S. OTHERWISE THE FEW CLOUDS THAT ARE PRESENT ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD CLEAR OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS RESULTING IN
SUNNY SKIES TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS MOSTLY DRY AND
PERIODICALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. FOR TODAY, A RIDGE CONTINUES CENTERING OVER THE
PLAINS STATES, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT, EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
THAT SAID, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WESTERN ND WILL
BRING BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS, POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A LITTLE
DOWNSLOPING, OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. WITH A LITTLE DEEPER
MIXING, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IN
THE NORTHWEST. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TODAY WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS
COINCIDE WITH DRIER AIR.
SURFACE FLOW THURSDAY BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, EXPECT FURTHER
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY ALONG THE MISSOURI COTEAU. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ARE ON TAP. COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH, THIS
WILL LEAD TO NEAR-CRITCAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL.
A RIDGE RIDER THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY EVENING. THE RESULTING PARTIAL
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S, THOUGH READINGS APPROACHING 80
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I94. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS FRIDAY SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE THERMAL RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO CENTER OVER THE PLAINS STATES. ALONG WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH THE EFI OFF THE CHARTS FOR SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. CURRENT NBM HIGHS ARE FORECAST INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S, THE LATTER OF WHICH ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
RECORD TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BEYOND MONDAY OR
TUESDAY, A COOLING TREND AND POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS
FAVORED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN WESTERN ND TODAY, SPREADING
INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LLWS MAY IMPACT
PARTS OF WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN ND LATE TONIGHT,
AND DID ADD A MENTION OF THIS IN KXWA TAF. OTHERWISE, VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...NH
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