165
FXUS63 KBIS 081753
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1253 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE
AGAIN BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER PORTION FOR
DETAILS.
- MAINLY DRY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODICALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER AFTER MONDAY NEXT WEEK, WITH MORE
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE
CONTINUE TO MIX, SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED, GUSTING BETWEEN
30 AND 40 MPH, WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH NORTH
CENTRAL. PERCENT RH VALUES ALSO CONTINUE TO DROP, ALREADY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. THUS, RED FLAG
HEADLINES REMAIN VALID. CAMS ALSO REMAIN ON TRACK, STILL FIRING
OFF CONVECTION AFTER 15-1600 THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE. ALL WEATHER
ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK. LOOKING AT LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS,
STILL SOLID 20-25 KNOTS WELL WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER MOST AREAS.
GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 30-35 MPH, AND ALREADY SEEING SOME OF
THESE MAGNITUDES NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL, WITH RH VALUES
ALREADY SUB 40 PERCENT. LATE AFT/EVE CONVECTION IS STILL ON
TRACK AS WELL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE PRESENT, ALTHOUGH
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS MOST OF
THE STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ALL IN ALL, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
VERY WARM, MOSTLY DRY, AND PERIODICALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY, A THERMAL RIDGE CENTERS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE
PRODUCING FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THUS BRINGING NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
TO THE FORECAST AREA. RESULTING HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE 70S WITH SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE NEAR THE ND/SD
BORDER. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REAMPLIFY WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE CENTERING OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, EXPECT UNPLEASANT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EFI REMAINS VERY ANOMALOUS THESE
THREE DAYS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEST CONUS TROUGH
WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT, STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, NBM IS PRODUCING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BOTH OF WHICH SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. IN ADDITION, CSU MACHINE LEARNING HAS ALREADY
BEEN HINTING AT SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH THE HIGHER SUSTAINED AND GUSTS
IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE, WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS
ARE FORECAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING MORE
NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THEN EAST OR
NORTHEASTERLY FRI AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS,
ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
ERRATIC WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRY SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE, EXPECT BREEZY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS
TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AS LOW
AS 15 PERCENT IN THE NORTH AND IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH,
WHILE SUSTAINED SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. AS A RESULT, A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MOST AREAS THAT ARE NOT IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING CAN EXPECT TO SEE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AS WELL. IN ADDITION, A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE RIDING THE RIDGE MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THAT, THERE
IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS. WITH AN
INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE THE REAMPLIFICATION OF
THE RIDGE AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. AS A
RESULT, NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY
AND BREEZY TO WINDY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN MONDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>022-033-034.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...TELKEN
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