912
FXUS63 KBIS 311142
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
- HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD SMOKE
AT THE SURFACE.
- A SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS DROPPING THROUGH CENTRAL ND ARE EXITING
INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE SMOKY SKIES CONTINUE TODAY. NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
CURRENTLY, A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. THIS WAS
RESULTING IN A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY NEAR BISMARCK AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ND. THIS IS RESULTING IN AND AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE, ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THE ONLY CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ARE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER, IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS WE HAVE ABUNDANT SMOKE OVER
THE AREA, ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE TODAY AND SUNDAY.
IN GENERAL, VISIBILITIES ARE LOWEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND ARE PUSHING SOUTHWARD. AT THE BISMARCK AIRPORT
VISIBILITIES HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED BELOW 3SM IN SMOKE AND A RAIN
SHOWER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES SO FAR IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ARE
AROUND 2SM, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW VSBYS IN THE 1-2SM RANGE.
FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS OF SMOKE TODAY
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND DROP SOUTH DURING THE
DAY. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE, HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS
EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND, OR NORTH CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHEAST ND. EITHER WAY, THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE LOOKS TO SEE THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS OF SURFACE SMOKE.
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE WILL SEE THE LOWEST
CONCENTRATIONS OF SURFACE SMOKE TODAY, BUT SMOKE ALOFT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND.
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY,
THERE IS A DEFINITE LESSENING OF SURFACE SMOKE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER PLUME OF SURFACE SMOKE PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSHES
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST ND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SURFACE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS
WITH THIS PLUME ARE MUCH LESS THAN THOSE THAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE TODAY. EVEN THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE ALOFT
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE WORST DAY OF
THE WEEKEND REGARDING SMOKE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
DUE TO THE SMOKE WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES AROUND 4 DEGREES OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND, WHILE KEEPING HIGHS ABOUT THE SAME AS
THE GIVEN NBM GUIDANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST, DUE TO THE LESSER
CONCENTRATIONS HERE. AT THIS TIME, WE KEPT CURRENT NBM
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THESE MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE THIS IN
MORE DETAIL.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING A ROUND OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA, BEGINNING MOST LIKELY AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND, AND
THEN TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
FOR THE MOST PART, IT LOOKS LIKE BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION OCCURS BEHIND
THE FRONT, THUS ELEVATED CONVECTION, MORE LINEAR IN NATURE IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE BULK
SHEAR IS LACKING SUNDAY NIGHT BUT DOES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, AS
THE SHEAR INCREASES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, THE GREATEST
MUCAPE OUTRACES IT. THERE COULD BE TIMES WHERE THEY OVERLAP
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, BUT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA RATHER QUICKLY ON MONDAY. THE 00Z
GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND WOULD RESULT IN A BETTER
CHANCE FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT AT THIS
TIME THE CONSENSUS IS TO PLACE THE SEVERE THREAT EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WE COOL DOWN QUITE A BIT TUESDAY AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY DRY DIRECTLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH A BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, NEAR DAILY HIT AND MISS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
MVFR-IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN SMOKE. THE WESTERN SITES OF KXWA AND
ESPECIALLY KDIK MAY NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS THEY ARE
ON THE EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD SURFACE SMOKE. KMOT, KBIS AND KJMS
ARE ALL AT 2-4SM IN SMOKE TO BEGIN THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AND WILL
MOST LIKELY SEE THESE REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY AND
POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE 12Z TAF PERIOD. DID ADD A
SCATTERED MVFR LAYER AT TIMES AS THERE ARE TIMES THE AUTOMATED
SENSORS ARE REPORTING MVFR CEILINGS DUE TO THE HIGH SMOKE
CONCENTRATIONS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY NORTHWEST TODAY 5-15 KNOTS
AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT AND SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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