795
FXUS63 KBIS 311939
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
239 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
- SMOKE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TOMORROW, WITH
WIDESPREAD SMOKE AT THE SURFACE.
- A SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA KNOCKING ON THE BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE COULD INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AFTER AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND SURFACE BASE CAPE AROUND 300
J/KG COULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME
DECENT CIN OUT WEST WHICH WILL LIKELY HINDER WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LOW
SHEAR AND LOW CAPE. WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM
CANADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LEADING TO SLIGHT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THE PACIFIC FRONT MAY CLEAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT OF SMOKE BEFORE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
BRINGS IT STRAIGHT DOWN FOR CANADA TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S. THE INVERSION TONIGHT WILL
TRAP SMOKE NEAR THE SURFACE LEADING TO SLIGHT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS.
TOMORROW THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
LEADING TO INCREASED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. AREAS OF SMOKE
ARE FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW AND MOST
LIKELY LINGER INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE IMPACTED A FEW
DEGREES BY THE SMOKE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND OVERNIGHT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES FLATTENS AND A BROAD TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY. THE UPPER-
LEVEL SYSTEM TIMING IS FAVORING THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON MONDAY. THE INSTABILITY AXIS ON THE ENSEMBLES REMAINS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS BROAD TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
FU HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE
STATE. FU COULD CAUSE LOWER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. TERMINALS ARE REPORTING LOW
CLOUDS AROUND 2000FT TO 3500FT HOWEVER THIS IS NOT TRUE AS THEY
ARE FALSE READING FROM THICK SMOKE ALOFT. THINK SMOKE ALOFT
STILL MAY OBSCURE VISIBILITY LIKE CLOUDS. FU IS FORECAST TO
START CLEARING OUT OF THE WEST FIRST TOMORROW MAINLY IMPACT
KDIK AND KXWA. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MIGHT HAVE TO WAIT FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CLEAR. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY SWITCHING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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