605
FXUS63 KBIS 011455
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
955 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 80S.
- SMOKE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH
AREAS OF SMOKE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SURFACE SMOKE IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND SOME
BREEZY WINDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH A
VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND THEREAFTER. NEAR DAILY LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 83 OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO, BUT NEARLY ALL STATIONS
TO THE EAST CONTINUE TO REPORT 1 TO 3 MILE VISIBILITY. THE CAUSE
OF THESE RESTRICTIONS IS LIKELY IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING
FROM A MIXTURE OF SMOKE AND FOG TO JUST SMOKE. THE NEAR-SURFACE
SMOKE IS STILL FORECAST TO DISPERSE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT
OBSERVED TRENDS THIS MORNING ARE LAGGING BEHIND THE MOST RECENT
SMOKE MODELING OUTPUT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SMOKE STILL LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME
NOTABLE IMPROVEMENTS IN CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
THIS SURFACE SMOKE. ADDITIONALLY, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE
DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, ALSO HELPING
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. BOTH THE FOG AND THE
SURFACE SMOKE SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
NEAR SURFACE SMOKE BLANKETS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ANYWHERE FROM 1 MILE TO 5 MILES. DUE TO
THE WEAK SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING, THIS SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. LATER THIS MORNING, SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED, ALONG WITH 850MB WINDS
TURNING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING IN SPEED AS WELL. THIS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO START FILTERING THE SURFACE SMOKE OUT OF THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE THE SKY WILL STILL
APPEAR MILKY/HAZY, THE SURFACE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND SMOKY
SMELL SHOULD DISSIPATE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR STRONGER
DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. ALOFT, THE RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THESE
CALM CONDITIONS WILL TRANSIT EASTWARD, WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. IF SMOKE DISPERSION IS
THOROUGH ENOUGH, WE COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
THOUGH IF SMOKE LINGERS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED,
THESE VALUES WILL DROP A DEGREE OR TWO.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW AHEAD OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE EAST TONIGHT,
LEADING TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEGINNING IN THE EVENING
HOURS. A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY IS EXPECTED
ALONG THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH STRONGER WIND SPEEDS AND CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN IN PARTICULAR WILL
LAG A BIT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT, ARRIVING IN THE WEST AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THIS RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO MONDAY, BEFORE
DEPARTING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
HELP KEEP SEVERE POTENTIAL VERY LOW WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MAY SEE
HIGHS STAY ABOVE 70, AS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE CLEARING THAT
AREA AFTER PEAK HEATING HAS OCCURRED. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
SIGNAL FOR A POTENTIALLY BRIEF STRONG WIND MAXIMUM ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL, AS A LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE 850MB
FLOW MAY MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER GUSTS FOR A SHORT DURATION IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK
INTO THE 70S AND 80S, AS SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. AFTER
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, THE PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A LARGE TROUGH MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO OUR NORTH,
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH. AS A
RESULT, AFTER A DRY TUESDAY, NEAR DAILY LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SHORTWAVE AS WELL. THE PATTERN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE, BUT NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE WEATHER AS THE
TYPICAL SOUTHWESTERLY-FLOW PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S BY THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY PRETTY MILD, AS NO
PARTICULARLY STRONG SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SMOKE AND FOG HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED
OUT OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WITH KDIK AND KXWA NOW AT VFR
CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUE
TO EXPERIENCE PRIMARILY IFR VISIBILITIES. THE CAUSE OF THESE
RESTRICTIONS IS LIKELY IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FROM A
MIXTURE OF SMOKE AND FOG TO JUST SMOKE, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME IMPROVEMENT. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY SMOKE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISION OF THE SMOKE/VISIBILITY FORECAST IS
NOT HIGH.
AROUND 18Z, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST, SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT, WHILE ALSO BRINGING DOWN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SURFACE SMOKE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 02Z, SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...BESSON
AVIATION...BESSON/HOLLAN
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