874
FXUS63 KBIS 021133
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TODAY, WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
- DRY ON TUESDAY, WITH DAILY LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO ROLL
THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DECREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING, THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RE-STRENGTHENING AS
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY. MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO
THE POPS, WITH MINIMAL OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS JUST
ABOUT MADE ITS WAY THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE
WINDS PRETTY FIRMLY OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE LAGGING
A BIT BEHIND, EXTENDING IN A LINE FROM BOWMAN COUNTY TO
BOTTINEAU COUNTY. SOME MORE STRATIFORM SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS INITIAL PUSH AS WELL, CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA. THESE WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD AS IT MOVES EAST, BRINGING
ABOUT 50 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT LOWER, AS MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN PRETTY
LOW. EVERY NOW AND THEN, A CAM RUN SUGGESTS MAYBE A STRONGER
STORM COULD FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING SEEMS PRETTY LOW. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA, NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK END OF IT WILL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH, NOTABLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE, WHERE WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
COOL OFF SUBSTANTIALLY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S, AS THEY WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT FOR THE LONGEST AMOUNT OF TIME. THIS COLD FRONT
MAY ALSO DRIVE DOWN ANOTHER BRIEF WAVE OF NEAR SURFACE SMOKE,
THOUGH THIS SHOULDN'T BE AS DENSE AS THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE DAY WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY DROP A
BIT.
AFTER TODAY, WE ENTER INTO A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEK. ALOFT, A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SIT ACROSS
NORTHERN MANITOBA, PLACING NORTH DAKOTA UNDER SOMEWHAT ZONAL
CYCLONIC FLOW. WHILE THIS WILL BRING ABOUT NEAR-DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS, ITS NOT NECESSARILY CONDUCIVE FOR ACTIVE
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH INSTABILITY
FORECASTS INDICATING GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE VALUES THROUGH THE
WEEK.
INITIALLY, TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY DRY, AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST, BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY, BEFORE MOSTLY STAYING WITHIN THE
70S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AFTER THE HIGH PUSHES
EASTWARD, A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING ABOUT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, GENERALLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. QPF VALUES REMAIN RATHER LOW
WITH THESE, AS FOR THE MOST PART, THESE WILL NOT BE TOO
ORGANIZED. WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE PRETTY
LIGHT, AS NO LARGE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
BY SATURDAY, HIGHS GENERALLY HOVERING AROUND 80 ARE FORECAST, AS
A THERMAL RIDGE MAXIMUM PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
BEYOND THIS POINT, MODELS DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH SOME VERY
WEAK AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THIS PATTERN GOING BEYOND THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING,
AND WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, IMPACTING ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE VFR, THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS, VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR. WINDS
TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 KTS, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS. IN THE NORTH, WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 10 KTS. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA AND/OR
DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z, ALONG WITH CEILINGS LIFTING AND WINDS
DECREASING AT THE SAME TIME.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...BESSON
DISCUSSION...BESSON
AVIATION...BESSON
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