128
FXUS63 KBIS 021803
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
103 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TODAY, WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
- DRY ON TUESDAY, WITH DAILY LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS MOSTLY UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED. VERY LITTLE
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER OVER THE PAST
HOUR, AND CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN OFF TO OUR EAST. DO EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 50S AND 60S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
AT 930 AM CDT, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO MCINTOSH
COUNTY. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS NO SURFACE-BASED OR MIXED LAYER CAPE,
BUT ELEVATED MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AS
HIGH AS 30 KTS. COULD THEREFORE SEE A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS EMBEDDED
IN THE LINE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY. GIVEN THE LINEAR NATURE, WOULD EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN OBSERVED
WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT, WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVING NOW COMPLETELY CLEARED OUR
FORECAST AREA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING,
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE FALLING FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO THE BADLANDS. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE OVER A SIMILAR
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, POSSIBLY FILLING BACK INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO ROLL
THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DECREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING, THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RE-STRENGTHENING AS
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY. MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO
THE POPS, WITH MINIMAL OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS JUST
ABOUT MADE ITS WAY THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE
WINDS PRETTY FIRMLY OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE LAGGING
A BIT BEHIND, EXTENDING IN A LINE FROM BOWMAN COUNTY TO
BOTTINEAU COUNTY. SOME MORE STRATIFORM SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS INITIAL PUSH AS WELL, CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA. THESE WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD AS IT MOVES EAST, BRINGING
ABOUT 50 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT LOWER, AS MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN PRETTY
LOW. EVERY NOW AND THEN, A CAM RUN SUGGESTS MAYBE A STRONGER
STORM COULD FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING SEEMS PRETTY LOW. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA, NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK END OF IT WILL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH, NOTABLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE, WHERE WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
COOL OFF SUBSTANTIALLY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S, AS THEY WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT FOR THE LONGEST AMOUNT OF TIME. THIS COLD FRONT
MAY ALSO DRIVE DOWN ANOTHER BRIEF WAVE OF NEAR SURFACE SMOKE,
THOUGH THIS SHOULDN'T BE AS DENSE AS THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE DAY WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY DROP A
BIT.
AFTER TODAY, WE ENTER INTO A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEK. ALOFT, A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SIT ACROSS
NORTHERN MANITOBA, PLACING NORTH DAKOTA UNDER SOMEWHAT ZONAL
CYCLONIC FLOW. WHILE THIS WILL BRING ABOUT NEAR-DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS, ITS NOT NECESSARILY CONDUCIVE FOR ACTIVE
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH INSTABILITY
FORECASTS INDICATING GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE VALUES THROUGH THE
WEEK.
INITIALLY, TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY DRY, AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST, BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY, BEFORE MOSTLY STAYING WITHIN THE
70S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AFTER THE HIGH PUSHES
EASTWARD, A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING ABOUT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, GENERALLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. QPF VALUES REMAIN RATHER LOW
WITH THESE, AS FOR THE MOST PART, THESE WILL NOT BE TOO
ORGANIZED. WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE PRETTY
LIGHT, AS NO LARGE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
BY SATURDAY, HIGHS GENERALLY HOVERING AROUND 80 ARE FORECAST, AS
A THERMAL RIDGE MAXIMUM PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
BEYOND THIS POINT, MODELS DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH SOME VERY
WEAK AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THIS PATTERN GOING BEYOND THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING APPEAR TO NOW BE PRIMARILY LIMITED
TO KJMS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY
EARLY EVENING, BUT SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REENTER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT VFR LEVELS, THOUGH FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA (NOT
INCLUDING KDIK) COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS TO THE NORTH. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, EXPECT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...BESSON
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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