072
FXUS63 KBIS 031739
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LOWEST TODAY (AROUND 10 PERCENT) AND
HIGHEST ON SATURDAY (AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, SO
WE BUMPED UP SKY COVER FOR THAT. LOADED IN THE THE NEW NBM DATA
AS WELL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
CLOUDS HAVE NOW MOSTLY CLEARED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE STATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
SOME MID-LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL, SLOWLY
ERODING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT WITHIN
THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. OTHERWISE, A RATHER MILD MORNING
CONTINUES ON FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
THIS MORNING, A VERY WEAK WAVE IS BRINGING SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WHILE HIGH CIRRUS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA INTRUDES
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST IN A FEW HOURS, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, RESULTING IN A GENERALLY
SUNNY DAY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN A BIT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, RESULTING IN SOME BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD HOVER RIGHT AROUND 70
DEGREES, WHILE LOWS THIS MORNING DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S. LATER
TONIGHT, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO
HELP GENERATE SOME WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (ROUGHLY 10
TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE). THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THESE.
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, TROUGHING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY APPROACHING THE LOWER 80S. NEAR
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN GENERAL REMAIN LOW/MEDIUM
(ROUGHLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT), WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
LOWER. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT BEST, COUPLED WITH VERY WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR, HELP LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WINDS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEAK ALSO REMAIN GENERALLY PRETTY LIGHT. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SOMEWHAT MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH OVERALL STILL REMAINS RATHER TRANSIENT AND SLOPPY
COMPARED TO THE MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEMS WE SAW IN MAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE ALSO FORECAST TO TAKE A DIP, AS A
RESULT OF THE SYSTEM PASSING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
SPREADS IN NBM TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WIDER ON SUNDAY, OWING TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. IN GENERAL, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO DROP BACK INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. AFTER THIS WEEKEND, WE SEE SOME
SUBTLE SIGNS THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM BACK UP AS A RESULT
OF A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE STILL
REMAINS PRETTY LOW, WITH NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS WIDENING EVEN
FURTHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL BE
MORE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 10KTS. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE LOWER CHANCE,
DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...BESSON
AVIATION...SMITH
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