513
FXUS63 KBIS 031915
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
215 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK, WARMING
TO AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
CURRENTLY CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAY UP IN
CANADA IS ALLOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOWER
PRESSURE IS ALSO ALLOWING THE CLASSIC DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO
FORM ACROSS THE STATE. THIS IS ALSO STILL PULLING THE WILDFIRE
SMOKE SOUTH INTO THE UNITED STATE, ALTHOUGH THE WORST OF IT IS
FAR EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE SMOKE HERE IS STAYING ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN
THIS NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. THERE IS
ACTUALLY A CHANCE OF THUNDER AFTER 7PM WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL, OTHERWISE JUST LIGHT SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES EAST. THIS WILL
FLATTEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS,
ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY THIS WEEKEND WE COULD SEE 80
AGAIN.
THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. SATURDAY THE SAME
THING WILL OCCUR WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
SATURDAY EVENING COULD BE A TIMEFRAME WHEN THEY COULD. SOME
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT STORMS SATURDAY. NEXT
WEEK THE PATTERN COULD BE ACTIVE AGAIN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DIVES SOUTH INTO WISCONSIN, PUTTING US IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
NORTHWEST TODAY. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20KTS FROM
THE NORTHWEST TODAY. WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL BE MORE FROM THE NORTH
AROUND 10KTS. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE LOWER CHANCE, DECIDED TO KEEP THEM
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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