573
FXUS63 KBIS 040006
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
706 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, EXCEPT WARMER ON SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VERY
LITTLE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED, AND ONLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD THEN CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH AMOUNTS AND INTENSITY REMAINING
LIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, CAMS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE 12Z HREF SHOWS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
(VIA NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
GREATER THAN 40 DBZ) FROM BETWEEN DICKINSON AND HETTINGER TO
BETWEEN CARRINGTON AND JAMESTOWN DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS
INCLUDE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE (WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN), AN
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL NO HIGHER THAN 30 KFT, AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS. THIS COULD YIELD A STRONGER STORM OR
TWO, WITH ERRATIC STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD
GIVEN FORECAST INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD
ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN A RELATIVELY LOWER FREEZING LEVEL
AND SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE FZL-LFC LAYER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
CURRENTLY CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAY UP IN
CANADA IS ALLOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOWER
PRESSURE IS ALSO ALLOWING THE CLASSIC DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO
FORM ACROSS THE STATE. THIS IS ALSO STILL PULLING THE WILDFIRE
SMOKE SOUTH INTO THE UNITED STATE, ALTHOUGH THE WORST OF IT IS
FAR EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE SMOKE HERE IS STAYING ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN
THIS NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. THERE IS
ACTUALLY A CHANCE OF THUNDER AFTER 7PM WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL, OTHERWISE JUST LIGHT SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES EAST. THIS WILL
FLATTEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS,
ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY THIS WEEKEND WE COULD SEE 80
AGAIN.
THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. SATURDAY THE SAME
THING WILL OCCUR WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
SATURDAY EVENING COULD BE A TIMEFRAME WHEN THEY COULD. SOME
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT STORMS SATURDAY. NEXT
WEEK THE PATTERN COULD BE ACTIVE AGAIN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DIVES SOUTH INTO WISCONSIN, PUTTING US IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING, BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS COULD THEN REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SAME PART OF
THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DROP INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE INTENSIFYING INTO THUNDERSTORMS.
PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED AT EACH TAF SITE TO ADDRESS
THIS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. ASIDE FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER
THROUGH THE EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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