452
FXUS63 KBIS 041857
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
157 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY,
WARMING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
CURRENTLY A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AROUND A BIG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WAY UP IN CANADA, IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, A TROUGH IS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. DIURNAL AND CYCLONICALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
POPCORNING ALL OVER THE STATE. WITH THESE, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING, AND MOVING EAST. THERE IS FORECAST TO
BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OF CAPE TODAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE WILDFIRE SMOKE IS STILL PRESENT HIGH IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AND NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN.
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. THIS TIME MAINLY JUST CENTRAL AND SOUTH. A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH
DAKOTA. AGAIN, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THIS TIME
A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN CONUS. FRIDAY ANOTHER
SMALL SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH, LEADING TO
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES
OUT OF CANADA. BETWEEN A COLD FRONT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORCES, STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR. SATURDAY WILL MOSTLY BE WINDY
IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH, SUNDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE NEAR 80.
NEXT WEEK, A FLAT RIDGE SETS UP WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED OFF THE MONTANA MOUNTAINS. MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THESE, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM TO THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
VFR CIGS AND VIS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD ALSO HAVE
ERRATIC WINDS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY, SWITCHING TO
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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